Local view for "http://purl.org/linkedpolitics/eu/plenary/2007-09-05-Speech-3-211"
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"en.20070905.21.3-211"2
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"Mr President, with regard to the impact on the real economy of the turbulence, or the crisis, if that is what you wish to call it, in the financial markets in recent weeks, I repeat that according to our initial estimates – we will be publishing forecasts on Tuesday – but also according to opinions that are being made public by other bodies and public and private institutions, the impact of this turbulence on economic activity, economic growth and employment in European economies in 2007 will be felt, but it will be very slight.
A large proportion of the results for 2007 are already guaranteed by the results produced in the first two quarters, by the information available on what is happening in our economies in this third quarter and by the positive inertia of economic recovery based on the good, solid foundations that we inherited from 2006.
The risks will be more evident looking towards 2008. In our forecasts in May the growth rates for 2008 were already affected by a maturing of the economic cycle and by the impact of the decisions adopted on monetary policy by the central banks. In Europe and beyond, this financial crisis, this financial turbulence and the subsequent tightening of credit conditions are going to increase or are increasing the risks of a decline in results for 2008, but I still think that it is too early to make a definitive analysis from which to draw some final conclusions on the subject.
We need to hope that, insofar as many of the factors that have been encouraging the turbulence of recent weeks are related to confidence, if we recover confidence and if we all contribute to a rigorous vision and diagnosis of the situation in order to improve confidence, or to consolidate confidence, the 2008 results will be better or less concerning than some imagine they will be.
I think that most of those who have spoken broadly agree on what led to this increase in volatility and to the turbulence in the financial markets, and I also think that there is agreement that solutions need to be found. However, the solutions are not simple, and we should not overact.
Just like good actors in the theatre, good politicians should not overact at times of turbulence. We need to do more detailed analysis and understand the facts more fully, and we need to try to seek effective solutions to challenges that exist, those that are evident, and those that we have not yet discovered.
If we look back over the debates in Parliament or the reports on financial stability by the Monetary Fund or the Central Bank, the analyses by the European Commission and our own speeches in the recent past, we did not know where or when, but we did know that turbulence of this kind could occur, given the evolution of the financial markets, and the sophistication of the instruments and techniques used by financial institutions.
I repeat what I said at the start: the European economy is still on solid foundations. The euro is protecting us. Once again it has proven its ability to protect and to absorb shocks that under other circumstances, before the launch of the euro, would have created much greater difficulties for us, both from a monetary and financial point of view and in our real economy, and, to finish, I think that the European Central Bank, in exercising its responsibility, acted sensibly and correctly in August."@en1
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