Local view for "http://purl.org/linkedpolitics/eu/plenary/2007-07-11-Speech-3-260"
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"Mr President, I am happy for this report to be debated jointly with the report on the eurozone. I would add that the report I am presenting was adopted unanimously by the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs.
Starting with the economic situation, in 2006 the economic recovery in the eurozone became a self-sustaining process with domestic demand acting as the main driver. Two million jobs were created in 2006 and unemployment fell from 8.4% to 7.6%. In the context of this recovery, I would like to stress the main points of the report. Against the background of the recent recovery, any further raising of interest rates should be undertaken with caution in order not to endanger economic growth. It is crucial that wages increase in line with productivity in order to preserve competitiveness in Member States and to allow for job creation in a non-inflationary environment. Fiscal consolidation is key and all the more necessary in good times in order to achieve long-term growth.
The report observes that small economies have performed better than large economies since the creation of the eurozone in terms of growth, with notably Ireland, Finland, Greece, Luxembourg and Spain achieving a higher average growth rate than the eurozone average and we say that lessons might be drawn from such developments. The report expresses concern about the ongoing appreciation of the euro against most major European currencies. Article 111 of the Treaty assigns responsibility for exchange rate policy to the Council but without specifying how this responsibility should be exercised.
The report calls on the Eurogroup, the Council and the ECB to exercise their respective powers and responsibilities in full coordination. The report also calls on the ECB to monitor closely developments in the use of the euro as a reserve currency for central banks and, in the context of its annual report on the international role of the euro, to quantify and analyse the effects of this, particularly as regards exchange rates. Mr Trichet will be aware that every time he has appeared at Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee during the last two years I have raised with him the issue of house prices. This remains a concern of mine. Therefore, the report calls for the ECB to monitor closely these developments, which have the potential to have consequences for the real economy. The report contains a request that the ECB present ways forward with their respective advantages, such as including real estate in the harmonised index of consumer prices or devising a specific type of indicator or suggesting specific measures to be taken at national level due to heterogeneities among the national markets.
I refer later on to the Fed formula. Perhaps it is time to develop an ECB formula to help forecast the likely effect of interest rate increases on house prices. My report also raises the issue of sub-prime lending and suggests that lessons can be learned in the EU from the potential difficulties for the US economy of sub-prime lending.
I would like to take a moment to address an issue of particular concern to Ireland but which has potential interest for other eurozone members. Last year in Ireland house prices were forecast to increase by 9% by estate agents Hook and McDonald, by between 8% and 10% by Sherry Fitzgerald and by 7% by Friends First and IIB, while Allied Irish Banks forecast an increase of between 3% and 6%. The recent Irish Permanent tsb/ESRI index shows in fact that house prices fell by 2.1% between January and May 2007 and a further decline in Ireland is expected. Sub-prime lending – that is lending to poorer people, those with an irregular income stream or difficult history of meeting loans – is projected to grow to EUR 4 billion in Ireland this year. If the average loan was between EUR 200 000 and EUR 400 000, then between 10 000 and 20 000 such loans exist in Ireland alone. Sub-prime lenders are relatively new to the Irish market and generally charge about twice the going mortgage rate to ‘compensate’ – as they put it – lenders for higher risk. In one case a mortgage company operating in Ireland since 2005 has already repossessed 30 homes.
There are also signs of concern in Britain about sub-prime lending. It has been known for some time that there is a Fed formula in the United States. The Fed formula devised by the US Federal Reserve, according to one of its former economists, shows that typically, when house prices have been driven up for several years by low interest rates, when interest rates increase, prices begin to decline roughly 18 months to 2 years later. I believe that the ECB should follow this formula and develop an ECB formula because, at present, we are leaving it to people who are involved in the industry to make the forecasts, and they are the people – the financial institutions and others – who have most to gain.
The report urges the Commission to assess the quality of supervision and offshore location of hedge funds. It reiterates points made in the past about democratic scrutiny and the need to publish summary minutes. It draws attention to the fact that overdraft rates in the euro area vary from 7% to 13.5% and asks that the ECB evaluate this.
It ends by saying that the number of banknotes in circulation stood at 11.3 billion with a value of EUR 628.2 billion last year, but that it is concerned about the growth in the number of 50 euro, 100 euro and 500 euro banknotes. 500 euro banknotes alone have increased by 13.2%. My report, with the support of the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee, raises the possibility of criminal activities in the use of these large banknotes and says that it requires further examination by the ECB. I hope Mr Trichet will be in a position to respond to this report and, in particular – not today, but perhaps over a certain period – to consider my suggestion about an ECB formula to equate with the Fed formula so that there can be a true and accurate measure of the likely knock-on effect of interest rate increases on house prices in the Member States of the eurozone."@en4
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"Mr President, I am happy for this report to be debated jointly with the report on the eurozone. I would add that the report I am presenting was adopted unanimously by the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs.
Starting with the economic situation, in 2006 the economic recovery in the eurozone became a self-sustaining process with domestic demand acting as the main driver. Two million jobs were created in 2006 and unemployment fell from 8.4% to 7.6%. In the context of this recovery, I would like to stress the main points of the report. Against the background of the recent recovery, any further raising of interest rates should be undertaken with caution in order not to endanger economic growth. It is crucial that wages increase in line with productivity in order to preserve competitiveness in Member States and to allow for job creation in a non-inflationary environment. Fiscal consolidation is key and all the more necessary in good times in order to achieve long-term growth.
The report observes that small economies have performed better than large economies since the creation of the eurozone in terms of growth, with notably Ireland, Finland, Greece, Luxembourg and Spain achieving a higher average growth rate than the eurozone average and we say that lessons might be drawn from such developments. The report expresses concern about the ongoing appreciation of the euro against most major European currencies. Article 111 of the Treaty assigns responsibility for exchange rate policy to the Council but without specifying how this responsibility should be exercised.
The report calls on the Eurogroup, the Council and the ECB to exercise their respective powers and responsibilities in full coordination. The report also calls on the ECB to monitor closely developments in the use of the euro as a reserve currency for central banks and, in the context of its annual report on the international role of the euro, to quantify and analyse the effects of this, particularly as regards exchange rates. Mr Trichet will be aware that every time he has appeared at Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee during the last two years I have raised with him the issue of house prices. This remains a concern of mine. Therefore, the report calls for the ECB to monitor closely these developments, which have the potential to have consequences for the real economy. The report contains a request that the ECB present ways forward with their respective advantages, such as including real estate in the harmonised index of consumer prices or devising a specific type of indicator or suggesting specific measures to be taken at national level due to heterogeneities among the national markets.
I refer later on to the Fed formula. Perhaps it is time to develop an ECB formula to help forecast the likely effect of interest rate increases on house prices. My report also raises the issue of sub-prime lending and suggests that lessons can be learned in the EU from the potential difficulties for the US economy of sub-prime lending.
I would like to take a moment to address an issue of particular concern to Ireland but which has potential interest for other eurozone members. Last year in Ireland house prices were forecast to increase by 9% by estate agents Hook and McDonald, by between 8% and 10% by Sherry Fitzgerald and by 7% by Friends First and IIB, while Allied Irish Banks forecast an increase of between 3% and 6%. The recent Irish Permanent tsb/ESRI index shows in fact that house prices fell by 2.1% between January and May 2007 and a further decline in Ireland is expected. Sub-prime lending – that is lending to poorer people, those with an irregular income stream or difficult history of meeting loans – is projected to grow to EUR 4 billion in Ireland this year. If the average loan was between EUR 200 000 and EUR 400 000, then between 10 000 and 20 000 such loans exist in Ireland alone. Sub-prime lenders are relatively new to the Irish market and generally charge about twice the going mortgage rate to ‘compensate’ – as they put it – lenders for higher risk. In one case a mortgage company operating in Ireland since 2005 has already repossessed 30 homes.
There are also signs of concern in Britain about sub-prime lending. It has been known for some time that there is a Fed formula in the United States. The Fed formula devised by the US Federal Reserve, according to one of its former economists, shows that typically, when house prices have been driven up for several years by low interest rates, when interest rates increase, prices begin to decline roughly 18 months to 2 years later. I believe that the ECB should follow this formula and develop an ECB formula because, at present, we are leaving it to people who are involved in the industry to make the forecasts, and they are the people – the financial institutions and others – who have most to gain.
The report urges the Commission to assess the quality of supervision and offshore location of hedge funds. It reiterates points made in the past about democratic scrutiny and the need to publish summary minutes. It draws attention to the fact that overdraft rates in the euro area vary from 7% to 13.5% and asks that the ECB evaluate this.
It ends by saying that the number of banknotes in circulation stood at 11.3 billion with a value of EUR 628.2 billion last year, but that it is concerned about the growth in the number of 50 euro, 100 euro and 500 euro banknotes. 500 euro banknotes alone have increased by 13.2%. My report, with the support of the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee, raises the possibility of criminal activities in the use of these large banknotes and says that it requires further examination by the ECB. I hope Mr Trichet will be in a position to respond to this report and, in particular – not today, but perhaps over a certain period – to consider my suggestion about an ECB formula to equate with the Fed formula so that there can be a true and accurate measure of the likely knock-on effect of interest rate increases on house prices in the Member States of the eurozone."@cs1
"Hr. formand! Det glæder mig, at denne betænkning drøftes sammen med betænkningen om euroområdet. Og jeg vil lige tilføje, at den betænkning, jeg forelægger, blev enstemmigt vedtaget i Økonomi- og Valutaudvalget.
For at begynde med den økonomiske situation blev det økonomiske opsving i 2006 i euroområdet en selvforstærkende proces med den indenlandske efterspørgsel som den væsentligste drivkraft. Der blev skabt 2 millioner job i 2006, og arbejdsløsheden faldt fra 8,4 til 7,6 %. I denne situation med økonomisk genopsving vil jeg gerne understrege hovedpunkterne i betænkningen. På baggrund af det seneste opsving skal man være forsigtig med at gennemføre en yderligere rentestigning for ikke at sætte den økonomiske vækst på spil. Det er vigtigt, at lønnen stiger i takt med produktiviteten for at bevare medlemsstaternes konkurrenceevne og muliggøre jobskabelse i et ikkeinflatorisk miljø. Budgetkonsolidering er af stor betydning og så meget desto vigtigere i gode tider for at sikre en langsigtet vækst.
Det hedder i betænkningen, at små økonomier har klaret sig bedre end store siden etableringen af euroområdet i henseende til vækst, hvor det især er Irland, Finland, Grækenland, Luxembourg og Spanien har opnået en højere gennemsnitlig vækst end gennemsnittet i euroområdet, og vi mener, at man kan lære noget af denne udvikling. I betænkningen udtrykkes der bekymring over den løbende opskrivning af euroen mod de fleste større europæiske valutaer. I henhold til traktatens artikel 111 er det Rådet, der har ansvaret for kurspolitikken, men det er dog ikke specificeret, hvordan dette ansvar skal udøves.
I betænkningen opfordres Eurogruppen, Rådet og ECB til at udøve deres respektive beføjelser og påtage sig deres ansvar i fuldstændig koordinering. Ligeledes opfordres ECB til at overvåge udviklingen i anvendelsen af euroen som reservevaluta for centralbanker og i forbindelse med sin årlige beretning om euroens internationale rolle at kvantificere og analysere følgerne heraf, især i henseende til kurser. Det vil være hr. Trichet bekendt, at hver gang han har deltaget i et møde i Parlamentets Økonomi- og Valutaudvalg i de sidste to år, har jeg rejst spørgsmålet om boligpriser over for ham. Det er stadig noget, er bekymrer mig. Derfor opfordres ECB i betænkningen til at overvåge denne udvikling nøje, fordi den kan få følger for realøkonomien. Betænkningen indeholder en anmodning om, at ECB fremsætter forslag til strategier for fremtiden og gør rede for deres respektive fordele, f.eks. at medtage fast ejendom i det harmoniserede forbrugerprisindeks eller at udarbejde en specifik type indikator eller stille forslag om specifikke foranstaltninger, der skal tages på nationalt plan, fordi de nationale markeder er forskellige.
Her tænker jeg på Fed-formlen. Måske er tiden kommet til at udvikle en ECB-formel til at beregne rentestigningernes sandsynlige virkning på huspriserne. Min betænkning handler også sub-prime-lån og indeholder et forslag om, at vi i EU kan tage ved lære af de potentielle problemer, som den amerikanske økonomi står over for på grund af dette fænomen.
Jeg vil gerne lige sige lidt om et emne af særlig interesse for Irland, men som også kan være relevant for andre medlemmer af euroområdet. Sidste år forudsagde ejendomsmæglerne Hook og McDonald en stigning på huspriserne i Irland på 9 %, Sherry Fitzgerald sagde 8 % og Friends First og IIB sagde 10 %, mens Allied Irish Banks regnede med en stigning på 3-6 %. De nye irske indeks Permanent tsb/ESRI viser faktisk, at huspriserne faldt med 2,1 % mellem januar og maj 2007, og der forventes yderligere fald i Irland. Sub-prime-lån - dvs. låne til fattigere mennesker, personer med uregelmæssige indtægter eller en problematisk historie med hensyn til at opfylde deres låneforpligtelser - forventes at stige til 4 milliarder euro i Irland i år. Hvis det gennemsnitlige lån ligger på mellem 200.000 euro og 400.000 euro, findes der mellem 10.000 og 20.000 af den slags lån alene i Irland. Sub-prime-långivere er et relativt nyt fænomen på det irske marked og forlanger normalt omkring dobbelt så høj rente for at "kompensere", som de kalder det, for den højere risiko. I et tilfælde har en pantevirksomhed, som har arbejdet i Irland siden 2005, allerede genovertaget 30 boliger.
Der er også grund til bekymring i Storbritannien på grund af sub-prime-lån. Vi har vidst et stykke tid, at der findes en Fed-formel i USA. Den Fed-formel, som den amerikanske Federal Reserve har udviklet, viser ifølge en af deres tidligere økonomer, at når huspriserne er gået i vejret over flere år på grund af lave renter, begynder priserne typisk at falde omkring 18 måneder til to år senere, når renten stiger. Jeg mener, at ECB skal følge denne formel og udvikle en ECB-formel, fordi vi nu overlader det til personer fra branchen selv at udarbejde prognoser, og det er netop disse mennesker - finansinstitutionerne og andre - der har mest at vinde.
I betænkningen opfordres Kommissionen indtrængende til at vurdere kvaliteten af overvågningen og offshore-placering af
. Den indeholder gentagelser af, hvad der er sagt tidligere om demokratisk overvågning og nødvendigheden af at offentliggøre mødereferater. Der gøres opmærksom på, at renten på kassekreditter i euroområdet svinger fra 7 til 13 % og beder ECB om at evaluere denne situation.
Betænkningen slutter med en bemærkning om, at mængden af sedler i omløb udgjorde en værdi på 628,2 milliarder euro sidste år, men der udtrykkes bekymring over væksten i antallet af sedler med en pålydende værdi på 50 euro, 100 euro og 500 euro. 500 eurosedlerne tegnede sig alene for en stigning på 13,2 %. I min betænkning nævner jeg med støtte fra Økonomi- og Valutaudvalget muligheden af kriminelle aktiviteter, hvor man bruger disse store pengesedler, og jeg siger, at ECB bør undersøge dette spørgsmål i dybden. Jeg håber, at hr. Trichet vil kunne besvare spørgsmålene i denne betænkning og især - ikke i dag, men måske på et senere tidspunkt - vil overveje mit forslag om at udarbejde en ECB-formel svarende til Fed-formlen, så vi kan få en reel, nøjagtig måling af, hvilke følger rentestigningerne får for huspriserne i de lande, der er medlemmer af euroområdet."@da2
".
Herr Präsident! Es freut mich, dass dieser Bericht gemeinsam mit dem Bericht über den Euroraum erörtert wird. Ich möchte noch hinzufügen, dass der Bericht, den ich vorstelle, vom Ausschuss für Wirtschaft und Währung einstimmig angenommen wurde.
Beginnen möchte ich mit der wirtschaftlichen Lage. Seit 2006 ist die wirtschaftliche Erholung in der Eurozone zu einem selbsttragenden Prozess geworden, wobei die Binnenmarktnachfrage Hauptmotor dieses Prozesses ist. 2006 wurden zwei Millionen Arbeitsplätze geschaffen, und die Arbeitslosenquote sank von 8,4 % auf 7,6 %. Im Zusammenhang mit dieser Erholung möchte ich die Hauptpunkte dieses Berichts hervorheben. Vor dem Hintergrund der kürzlich festzustellenden Erholung sind weitere Zinsanhebungen mit Vorsicht vorzunehmen, damit das Wirtschaftswachstum nicht gefährdet wird. Es kommt wesentlich darauf an, dass die Löhne nach Maßgabe der Produktivitätsentwicklung steigen, um die Wettbewerbsfähigkeit in den Mitgliedstaaten zu erhalten und die Schaffung von Arbeitsplätzen in einem inflationsfreien Umfeld zu ermöglichen. Die Haushaltskonsolidierung ist von zentraler Bedeutung und in wirtschaftlich günstigen Zeiten umso notwendiger, um ein längerfristiges Wachstum zu erreichen.
In dem Bericht wird vermerkt, dass seit der Einführung der Eurozone kleinere Volkswirtschaften bessere Leistungen erzielt haben als größere Volkswirtschaften, wobei insbesondere Irland, Finnland, Griechenland, Luxemburg und Spanien eine höhere durchschnittliche Wachstumsrate zu verzeichnen haben als der Durchschnitt der Eurozone. Aus diesen Entwicklungen können vielleicht manche Lehren gezogen werden. Im Bericht wird Besorgnis über den anhaltenden Wertzuwachs des Euro gegenüber den meisten bedeutenden ausländischen Währungen geäußert. In Artikel 111 des Vertrags wird die Zuständigkeit der Wechselkurspolitik dem Rat übertragen, wobei jedoch nicht ausgeführt wird, mit welchen Mitteln diese Zuständigkeit wahrzunehmen ist.
Es werden die Eurogruppe, der Rat und die EZB ersucht, ihre jeweiligen Zuständigkeiten umfassend wahrzunehmen und zu koordinieren. Darüber hinaus wird die EZB aufgefordert, die Entwicklung der Verwendung des Euro als Reservewährung durch die Zentralbanken aufmerksam zu beobachten und im Rahmen ihres Jahresberichts über die internationale Rolle des Euro eine Quantifizierung und Analyse dieser Entwicklung vorzulegen und dabei ihre Folgen insbesondere für den Wechselkurs zu untersuchen. Herr Trichet wird sich noch gut erinnern, dass ich ihn jedes Mal, wenn er in den letzten zwei Jahren im Ausschuss für Wirtschaft und Währung erschien, auf die Frage der Immobilienpreise angesprochen habe. Dieses Thema liegt mir immer noch sehr am Herzen. Daher wird die EZB im Bericht aufgefordert, diese Entwicklung sorgfältig zu beobachten, da sie möglicherweise Auswirkungen auf die realwirtschaftlichen Größen hat. Zudem enthält der Bericht die Aufforderung an die EZB, Lösungsansätze mit entsprechenden Vorteilen vorzulegen, wie etwa Einbindung von Immobilien in den harmonisierten Verbraucherpreisindex oder Ausarbeitung eines spezifischen Indikators oder Vorlage von Vorschlägen für besondere Maßnahmen auf nationaler Ebene aufgrund von Ungleichheiten zwischen nationalen Märkten.
Ich werde später noch auf die Formel der Federal Reserve Bank eingehen. Vielleicht ist es an der Zeit, eine EZB-Formel zu entwickeln, um Prognosen zur wahrscheinlichen Auswirkung der Anhebung der Zinssätze auf die Immobilienpreise zu ermöglichen. Darüber hinaus spreche ich in meinem Bericht die Frage der Kreditvergabe an Schuldner mit geringer Kreditwürdigkeit an und schlage vor, aus den potenziellen Schwierigkeiten, die die Wirtschaft der USA mit dieser Form der Kreditvergabe hat, zu lernen.
Kurz möchte ich noch auf eine Frage eingehen, die besonders für Irland von Belang ist, die aber auch für andere Mitglieder der Eurozone von Interesse sein könnte. Im letzten Jahr sagten die Immobilienmakler in Irland folgende Anstiege der Immobilienpreise voraus: Hook and McDonald gingen von 9 %, Sherry Fitzgerald von 8 % bis 10 % und Friends First und die IIB von 7 % aus, während die Allied Irish Banks einen Anstieg von 3 bis 6 % prognostizierten. Aus dem aktuellen Irish Permanent tsb/ESRI-Index geht hervor, dass die Immobilienpreise zwischen Januar und Mai 2007 aber stattdessen um 2,1 % fielen und in Irland von einem weiteren Preisrückgang auszugehen ist. „Sub-prime lending“ – also die Kreditvergabe an Personen mit geringem oder unregelmäßigem Einkommen oder solche, die in der Vergangenheit Probleme bei der Kreditrückzahlung hatten – wird Hochrechnungen zufolge in diesem Jahr in Irland auf einen Umfang von 4 Milliarden Euro anwachsen. Wenn der Durchschnittskredit zwischen 200 000 und 400 000 EUR betrug, gab es allein in Irland zwischen 10 000 und 20 000 Kreditverträge dieser Art. Diese Form der Kreditvergabe ist auf dem irischen Markt noch relativ neu und erfordert im Allgemeinen einen doppelt so hohen Hypothekensatz, um den Kreditgebern für das höhere Risiko einen, wie sie selbst ihn nennen, „Ausgleich“ zu verschaffen. In einem Fall hat eine in Irland tätige Kreditanstalt seit 2005 bereits 30 Häuser wieder in Besitz genommen.
Auch in Großbritannien gibt es Anzeichen dafür, dass das „sub-prime lending“ Sorgen bereitet. Es ist seit einiger Zeit bekannt, dass die Federal Reserve Bank in den USA über eine Formel verfügt. Einem ehemaligen Ökonomen dieser Bank zufolge gibt diese Formel an, dass die Preise üblicherweise, wenn die Immobilienpreise mehrere Jahre lang durch niedrige Zinssätze in die Höhe getrieben wurden, bei einem Anstieg der Zinssätze ungefähr 18 Monate bis zwei Jahre danach zu fallen beginnen. Meines Erachtens sollte sich die EZB an diese Formel halten und eine eigene Formel entwickeln, weil wir es momentan denen, die in der Branche tätig sind, überlassen, Prognosen zu erstellen. Und das sind in der Branche nun einmal diejenigen – Finanzinstitute usw. –, die am meisten davon profitieren.
Die Kommission wird im Bericht aufgefordert, die Qualität der Kontrollen an Off-Shore-Standorten von Hedgefonds zu bewerten. Es wird noch einmal auf die bereits angesprochenen Punkte in Bezug auf die demokratische Aufsicht und die Notwendigkeit der Veröffentlichung zusammenfassender Protokolle eingegangen. Zudem wird darauf hingewiesen, dass die Zinssätze für Überziehungskredite innerhalb der Eurozone zwischen 7 % und 13,5 % liegen, was von der EZB bewertet werden sollte.
Gegen Ende des Berichts wird darauf hingewiesen, dass letztes Jahr 11,3 Milliarden Banknoten im Wert von 628,2 Milliarden Euro im Umlauf waren, wobei das Wachstum der Zahl der Banknoten im Wert von 50 Euro, 100 Euro und 500 Euro Anlass zu Besorgnis gibt, da allein die Anzahl der 500-Euro-Scheine um 13,2 % gestiegen ist. In meinem Bericht wird mit Unterstützung des Ausschusses für Wirtschaft und Währung im Zusammenhang mit der Verwendung dieser hohen Banknotenwerte das Problem krimineller Aktivitäten angesprochen, was eine weitere Prüfung durch die EZB erfordert. Ich hoffe, dass Herr Trichet auf diesen Bericht eingehen kann und vor allem – nicht heute, aber vielleicht über einen gewissen Zeitraum hinweg –, meinen Vorschlag einer sich am Beispiel der Federal Reserve Bank orientierenden EZB-Formel in Erwägung ziehen kann, damit die wahrscheinlichen Auswirkungen einer Anhebung der Zinssätze auf die Immobilienpreise in den Mitgliedstaaten der Eurozone ganz genau gemessen werden können."@de9
"Κύριε Πρόεδρε, είμαι ευτυχής που η παρούσα έκθεση συζητείται από κοινού με την έκθεση για την ευρωζώνη. Θα ήθελα να προσθέσω ότι η έκθεση που παρουσιάζω εγκρίθηκε ομόφωνα από την Επιτροπή Οικονομικών και Νομισματικών Θεμάτων.
Ξεκινώντας με την οικονομική κατάσταση, το 2006 η οικονομική ανάκαμψη στην ευρωζώνη κατέστη μια αυτοσυντηρούμενη διαδικασία με την εσωτερική ζήτηση να δρα ως η βασική κινητήριος δύναμη. Δύο εκατομμύρια θέσεις εργασίας δημιουργήθηκαν το 2006 και η ανεργία έπεσε από το 8,4% στο 7,6%. Στο πλαίσιο της εν λόγω ανάκαμψης, θα ήθελα να τονίσω τα κύρια σημεία αυτής της έκθεσης. Στο πλαίσιο της πρόσφατης ανάκαμψης, οποιαδήποτε περαιτέρω αύξηση των επιτοκίων θα πρέπει να επιχειρείται με προσοχή ώστε να μην διακυβεύεται η οικονομική ανάπτυξη. Είναι ζωτικής σημασίας οι μισθοί να αυξάνονται σύμφωνα με την παραγωγικότητα προκειμένου να διατηρηθεί η ανταγωνιστικότητα στα κράτη μέλη και να καταστεί δυνατή η δημιουργία θέσεων εργασίας σε ένα μη πληθωριστικό περιβάλλον. Η δημοσιονομική εξυγίανση αποτελεί βασικό παράγοντα και είναι ακόμη πιο απαραίτητη σε ευνοϊκούς καιρούς, προκειμένου να επιτευχθεί μακροπρόθεσμη ανάπτυξη.
Η έκθεση διαπιστώνει ότι οι μικρές οικονομίες έχουν καλύτερες επιδόσεις από τις μεγάλες οικονομίες από τη δημιουργία της ευρωζώνης και μετά όσον αφορά την ανάπτυξη, και ειδικότερα η Ιρλανδία, η Φινλανδία, η Ελλάδα, το Λουξεμβούργο και η Ισπανία σημείωσαν υψηλότερο μέσο ρυθμό ανάπτυξης από τον μέσο όρο της ευρωζώνης και υποστηρίζουμε ότι από αυτές τις εξελίξεις μπορούν να αντληθούν διδάγματα. Η έκθεση εκφράζει ανησυχία για τη συνεχιζόμενη ανατίμηση του ευρώ έναντι των περισσότερων σημαντικών ευρωπαϊκών νομισμάτων. Το άρθρο 111 της Συνθήκης αναθέτει την ευθύνη για τη συναλλαγματική πολιτική στο Συμβούλιο χωρίς όμως να καθορίζει τον τρόπο με τον οποίο θα πρέπει να ασκείται η εν λόγω αρμοδιότητα.
Η έκθεση καλεί την Ευρωομάδα, το Συμβούλιο και την ΕΚΤ να ασκήσουν τις αντίστοιχες εξουσίες και αρμοδιότητές τους σε πλήρη συντονισμό. Η έκθεση καλεί επίσης την ΕΚΤ να παρακολουθεί στενά τις εξελίξεις στη χρήση του ευρώ ως αποθεματικό νόμισμα για τις κεντρικές τράπεζες και, στο πλαίσιο της ετήσιας έκθεσής της για τον διεθνή ρόλο του ευρώ, να ποσοτικοποιεί και να αναλύει τις επιπτώσεις της χρήσης αυτής, ιδίως όσον αφορά τις συναλλαγματικές ισοτιμίες. Ο κ. Trichet θα γνωρίζει ότι όποτε προσήλθε στην Επιτροπή Οικονομικών και Νομισματικών Θεμάτων του Κοινοβουλίου κατά την τελευταία διετία του έθεσα το θέμα των τιμών των κατοικιών. Αυτό παραμένει μια ανησυχία μου. Ως εκ τούτου, η έκθεση καλεί την ΕΚΤ να παρακολουθεί στενά αυτές τις εξελίξεις, που θα μπορούσαν να έχουν επιπτώσεις στην πραγματική οικονομία. Η έκθεση περιέχει ένα αίτημα να προτείνει η ΕΚΤ τρόπους δράσης με τα αντίστοιχα πλεονεκτήματά τους, όπως ο συνυπολογισμός του κλάδου των ακινήτων στον εναρμονισμένο δείκτη τιμών καταναλωτή ή η κατάρτιση ειδικού δείκτη, ή η πρόταση συγκεκριμένων μέτρων προς λήψη σε εθνικό επίπεδο λόγω της ετερογένειας των εθνικών αγορών.
Θα αναφερθώ εν συνεχεία στην ομοσπονδιακή μέθοδο των ΗΠΑ. Ίσως είναι καιρός να αναπτύξει η ΕΚΤ μία μέθοδο που θα βοηθά να προβλεφθούν οι πιθανές επιπτώσεις των αυξήσεων των επιτοκίων στις τιμές των κατοικιών. Η έκθεσή μου θέτει επίσης το θέμα του ενυπόθηκου δανεισμού υψηλού κινδύνου (sub-prime) και προτείνει η ΕΕ να αντλήσει διδάγματα από τις πιθανές δυσκολίες για την οικονομία των ΗΠΑ από τον ενυπόθηκο δανεισμό υψηλού κινδύνου.
Θα ήθελα να αναφερθώ για ένα λεπτό σε ένα θέμα ιδιαίτερου ενδιαφέροντος για την Ιρλανδία που έχει όμως πιθανό ενδιαφέρον και για τα άλλα μέλη της ευρωζώνης. Πέρυσι στην Ιρλανδία οι τιμές των κατοικιών είχε προβλεφθεί ότι θα αυξάνονταν κατά 9% από τους κτηματομεσίτες Hook και McDonald, μεταξύ 8% και 10% από τη Sherry Fitzgerald και κατά 7% από τους Friends First και IIB, ενώ οι τράπεζες Allied Irish Banks προέβλεπαν αύξηση μεταξύ 3% και 6%. Ο πρόσφατος δείκτης της ιρλανδικής Irish Permanent tsb/ESRI δείχνει όντως ότι οι τιμές των κατοικιών έπεσαν κατά 2,1% μεταξύ Ιανουαρίου και Μαΐου 2007 και αναμένεται περαιτέρω πτώση στην Ιρλανδία. Ο δανεισμός υψηλού κινδύνου –δηλαδή ο δανεισμός σε φτωχότερα άτομα, άτομα με ασταθή ροή εισοδήματος ή δύσκολο ιστορικό αποπληρωμής δανείων– προβλέπεται να αυξηθεί σε 4 δισεκατομμύρια ευρώ στην Ιρλανδία φέτος. Εάν το μέσο δάνειο ήταν μεταξύ 200 000 και 400 000 ευρώ, τότε δάνεια μεταξύ 10 000 και 20 000 υπάρχουν στην Ιρλανδία μόνο. Οι δανειστές υψηλού κινδύνου είναι σχετικά νεοεμφανισθέντες στην ιρλανδική αγορά και γενικά χρεώνουν το διπλάσιο του τρέχοντος επιτοκίου ενυπόθηκου δανείου προκειμένου να «αποζημιωθούν» –όπως ισχυρίζονται– για τον υψηλότερο κίνδυνο. Σε μια περίπτωση μια εταιρεία ενυπόθηκων δανείων που λειτουργεί στην Ιρλανδία από το 2005 έχει ήδη ανακτήσει 30 κατοικίες.
Ενδείξεις ανησυχίας σχετικά με τον ενυπόθηκο δανεισμό υψηλού κινδύνου υπάρχουν επίσης και στη Βρετανία. Είναι γνωστό εδώ και κάποιο διάστημα ότι στις Ηνωμένες Πολιτείες υπάρχει η ομοσπονδιακή μέθοδος. Η ομοσπονδιακή μέθοδος που καταρτίστηκε από το Ομοσπονδιακό Αποθεματικό Σύστημα των ΗΠΑ, σύμφωνα με κάποιον από τους πρώην οικονομολόγους του, δείχνει ότι συνήθως, όταν οι τιμές των κατοικιών αυξάνονται για αρκετά χρόνια λόγω των χαμηλών επιτοκίων, όταν τα επιτόκια αυξάνονται, οι τιμές αρχίζουν να πέφτουν περίπου 18 μήνες έως 2 χρόνια αργότερα. Πιστεύω ότι η ΕΚΤ θα πρέπει να ακολουθήσει αυτή τη μέθοδο και να αναπτύξει μία μέθοδο ΕΚΤ επειδή, επί του παρόντος, αφήνουμε στους ανθρώπους που εμπλέκονται στον τομέα να κάνουν τις προβλέψεις, και είναι οι άνθρωποι –οι χρηματοπιστωτικοί οργανισμοί και άλλοι– που θα έχουν το μεγαλύτερο κέρδος.
Η έκθεση προτρέπει την Επιτροπή να αποτιμήσει την ποιότητα εποπτείας και τις περιοχές offshore των αμοιβαίων κεφαλαίων κινδύνου. Επαναλαμβάνει θέματα που είχαν τεθεί στο παρελθόν σχετικά με τον δημοκρατικό έλεγχο και την ανάγκη δημοσίευσης των συνοπτικών πρακτικών. Εφιστά την προσοχή στο γεγονός ότι τα ποσοστά υπέρβασης του πιστωτικού ορίου στην ευρωζώνη κυμαίνονται μεταξύ 7% και 13,5% και ζητεί από την ΕΚΤ να εκτιμήσει την κατάσταση.
Η έκθεση τελειώνει λέγοντας ότι ο αριθμός των χαρτονομισμάτων σε κυκλοφορία ανήλθε σε 11,3 δισ. με αξία 628,2 δισ. ευρώ πέρυσι, αλλά ότι ανησυχεί για την αύξηση του αριθμού των χαρτονομισμάτων των 50, των 100 και των 500 ευρώ. Μόνο τα χαρτονομίσματα των 500 ευρώ αυξήθηκαν κατά 13,2%. Η έκθεσή μου, με την υποστήριξη της Επιτροπής Οικονομικών και Νομισματικών Θεμάτων, εγείρει το ενδεχόμενο εγκληματικών δραστηριοτήτων κατά τη χρήση αυτών των μεγάλων χαρτονομισμάτων και λέει ότι απαιτείται περαιτέρω εξέταση από την ΕΚΤ. Ελπίζω ότι ο κ. Trichet θα είναι σε θέση να ανταποκριθεί στην παρούσα έκθεση και, ιδίως –όχι σήμερα, αλλά ίσως σε ορισμένο χρονικό διάστημα– να εξετάσει την πρότασή μου σχετικά με τη θέσπιση μιας μεθόδου ΕΚΤ η οποία θα εξομοιωθεί με την ομοσπονδιακή μέθοδο ώστε να μπορέσει να αποτελέσει ένα πραγματικό και ακριβές μέτρο για τον πιθανό αντίκτυπο των αυξήσεων των επιτοκίων στις τιμές των κατοικιών στα κράτη μέλη της ευρωζώνης."@el10
".
Señor Presidente, me complace que este informe sea debatido junto con el informe sobre la zona del euro. Permítame añadir que el informe que voy a presentar fue aprobado por unanimidad por la Comisión de Asuntos Económicos y Monetarios.
Comenzando por la situación económica, en 2006 la recuperación económica de la zona del euro ha pasado a ser un proceso autosostenido en el que la demanda interna es el motor principal. En 2006 se crearon dos millones de puestos de trabajo y el desempleo se redujo del 8,4 al 7,6 %. En el contexto de esta recuperación, quisiera destacar los principales aspectos de este informe. Sobre el telón de fondo de la recuperación reciente, toda subida ulterior de los tipos de interés debería realizarse con cautela a fin de no poner en peligro el crecimiento económico. Es esencial que el aumento de los salarios sea coherente con la productividad, a fin de conservar la competitividad en los Estados miembros y contribuir a la creación de empleo en un entorno no inflacionista. El saneamiento presupuestario resulta clave, e incluso más necesario en tiempos de bonanza, para lograr un crecimiento a largo plazo.
El informe observa que, desde la creación de la zona del euro, el comportamiento de las pequeñas economías ha sido mejor que el de las economías más grandes, en términos de crecimiento; especialmente Irlanda, Finlandia, Grecia, Luxemburgo y España han registrado tasas medias de crecimiento superiores al promedio de la zona del euro, y a nuestro juicio podrían extraerse lecciones instructivas de este fenómeno. El informe expresa su preocupación por la continua apreciación del euro frente a la mayoría de las principales divisas europeas. El artículo 111 del Tratado confiere al Consejo la responsabilidad de la política de tipos de cambio, sin especificar, no obstante, a través de qué medios han de materializarse estas competencias.
El informe pide al Eurogrupo, al Consejo y al BCE que ejerzan sus respectivos poderes y competencias de forma totalmente coordinada. El informe insta también al BCE a que vigile de cerca la evolución del uso del euro como moneda de reserva por los bancos centrales, y que, en el marco de su informe anual sobre el papel internacional del euro, cuantifique y analice los efectos de esto, en particular en materia de tipos de cambio. El señor Trichet será consciente de que cada vez que ha comparecido ante la Comisión de Asuntos Económicos y Monetarios del Parlamento en los últimos dos años, le he planteado el problema de los precios de la vivienda. Y sigo teniendo esta misma preocupación. Por tanto, el informe insta a que el BCE siga de cerca esta evolución, que podría afectar a la economía real. El informe pide que el BCE presente soluciones con sus respectivas ventajas, como la inclusión de los bienes inmuebles en el Índice Armonizado de Precios de Consumo, crear un tipo específico de indicador o proponer la toma de medidas concretas que serían aplicables a escala nacional debido a la heterogeneidad de los mercados nacionales.
Más adelante voy a hacer referencia a la fórmula de la Reserva Federal. Tal vez sea el momento de desarrollar una fórmula del BCE para prever el posible efecto de las subidas de los tipos de interés sobre el precio de la vivienda. Mi informe también plantea la cuestión de los denominados préstamos de alto riesgo e indica que la Unión Europea debe aprender la lección de las posibles dificultades para le economía estadounidense de dichos préstamos.
Quisiera hablar un momento de una cuestión que afecta especialmente a Irlanda, pero que podría interesar a los demás miembros de la zona del euro. El año pasado, la inmobiliaria Hook and McDonald pronosticó un aumento del precio de la vivienda del 9 %; Sherry Fitzgerald, un aumento de entre el 8 y el 10 %; y Friends First e IIB, del 7 %. Mientras tanto, Allied Irish Banks pronosticó una subida de entre el 3 y el 6 %. El reciente índice de Irish Permanent TSB/ESRI señala que en realidad los precios han bajado un 2,1 % entre enero y mayo de 2007, y se espera una caída mayor en Irlanda. Se prevé que los préstamos de alto riesgo, es decir, los préstamos a las personas más pobres, que tienen ingresos irregulares o han tenido en el pasado dificultades para devolver créditos, crezcan este año hasta alcanzar los 4 000 millones de euros en Irlanda. Si el préstamo medio ha sido de entre 200 000 y 400 000 euros, tan solo en Irlanda existen entre 10 000 y 20 000 préstamos de este tipo. Las entidades que ofrecen préstamos de alto riesgo son relativamente nuevas en el mercado irlandés y suelen cobrar alrededor del doble del tipo hipotecario vigente, para «compensar» así, según dicen, a las entidades por el mayor riesgo en que incurren. En un caso una entidad hipotecaria que opera en Irlanda desde 2005 ya ha recuperado la posesión de 30 viviendas.
También hay señales de inquietud en Gran Bretaña por los préstamos de alto riesgo. Desde hace algún tiempo sabemos que existe una fórmula de la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos. La fórmula creada por la Reserva Federal estadounidense, según uno de sus antiguos economistas, indica que, normalmente, cuando los precios de la vivienda han sido impulsados al alza durante varios años por los bajos tipos de interés, cuando suben los tipos de interés, los precios empiezan a bajar entre 18 meses y dos años más tarde. Creo que el BCE debería utilizar esta fórmula y desarrollar una fórmula del BCE, ya que en la actualidad estamos dejando que los pronósticos los hagan personas que trabajan en el sector, y estas personas, instituciones financieras y otras, son las que más tienen que ganar.
El informe insta a la Comisión a que evalúe la calidad de la supervisión y las sedes extraterritoriales de los fondos de cobertura
Reitera aspectos señalados en el pasado sobre el control democrático y la necesidad de publicar actas resumidas. Llama la atención sobre el hecho de que los tipos de interés correspondientes a los descubiertos en cuenta en la zona del euro varían entre el 7 y el 13,5 %, y pide al BCE que lo evalúe.
Concluye señalando que el año pasado el número de billetes en circulación era de 11 300 millones, por valor de 628 200 millones de euros, pero muestra su preocupación por el aumento del número de billetes de 50, 100 y 500 euros. Los billetes de 500 euros, por ejemplo, han aumentado un 13,2 %. Mi informe, con el apoyo de la Comisión de Asuntos Económicos y Monetarios, indica la posibilidad de que estos billetes grandes se estén empleando en actividades delictivas, y requiere la realización de nuevos estudios por parte del BCE. Espero que el señor Trichet esté en condiciones de responder a este informe, y especialmente que tome en consideración, no hoy, pero sí quizá dentro de un tiempo, mi sugerencia de una fórmula del BCE similar a la fórmula de la Reserva Federal, para que pueda haber una medición verdadera y precisa del probable efecto dominó de las subidas de los tipos de interés en el precio de la vivienda en los Estados miembros de la zona del euro."@es21
"Mr President, I am happy for this report to be debated jointly with the report on the eurozone. I would add that the report I am presenting was adopted unanimously by the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs.
Starting with the economic situation, in 2006 the economic recovery in the eurozone became a self-sustaining process with domestic demand acting as the main driver. Two million jobs were created in 2006 and unemployment fell from 8.4% to 7.6%. In the context of this recovery, I would like to stress the main points of the report. Against the background of the recent recovery, any further raising of interest rates should be undertaken with caution in order not to endanger economic growth. It is crucial that wages increase in line with productivity in order to preserve competitiveness in Member States and to allow for job creation in a non-inflationary environment. Fiscal consolidation is key and all the more necessary in good times in order to achieve long-term growth.
The report observes that small economies have performed better than large economies since the creation of the eurozone in terms of growth, with notably Ireland, Finland, Greece, Luxembourg and Spain achieving a higher average growth rate than the eurozone average and we say that lessons might be drawn from such developments. The report expresses concern about the ongoing appreciation of the euro against most major European currencies. Article 111 of the Treaty assigns responsibility for exchange rate policy to the Council but without specifying how this responsibility should be exercised.
The report calls on the Eurogroup, the Council and the ECB to exercise their respective powers and responsibilities in full coordination. The report also calls on the ECB to monitor closely developments in the use of the euro as a reserve currency for central banks and, in the context of its annual report on the international role of the euro, to quantify and analyse the effects of this, particularly as regards exchange rates. Mr Trichet will be aware that every time he has appeared at Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee during the last two years I have raised with him the issue of house prices. This remains a concern of mine. Therefore, the report calls for the ECB to monitor closely these developments, which have the potential to have consequences for the real economy. The report contains a request that the ECB present ways forward with their respective advantages, such as including real estate in the harmonised index of consumer prices or devising a specific type of indicator or suggesting specific measures to be taken at national level due to heterogeneities among the national markets.
I refer later on to the Fed formula. Perhaps it is time to develop an ECB formula to help forecast the likely effect of interest rate increases on house prices. My report also raises the issue of sub-prime lending and suggests that lessons can be learned in the EU from the potential difficulties for the US economy of sub-prime lending.
I would like to take a moment to address an issue of particular concern to Ireland but which has potential interest for other eurozone members. Last year in Ireland house prices were forecast to increase by 9% by estate agents Hook and McDonald, by between 8% and 10% by Sherry Fitzgerald and by 7% by Friends First and IIB, while Allied Irish Banks forecast an increase of between 3% and 6%. The recent Irish Permanent tsb/ESRI index shows in fact that house prices fell by 2.1% between January and May 2007 and a further decline in Ireland is expected. Sub-prime lending – that is lending to poorer people, those with an irregular income stream or difficult history of meeting loans – is projected to grow to EUR 4 billion in Ireland this year. If the average loan was between EUR 200 000 and EUR 400 000, then between 10 000 and 20 000 such loans exist in Ireland alone. Sub-prime lenders are relatively new to the Irish market and generally charge about twice the going mortgage rate to ‘compensate’ – as they put it – lenders for higher risk. In one case a mortgage company operating in Ireland since 2005 has already repossessed 30 homes.
There are also signs of concern in Britain about sub-prime lending. It has been known for some time that there is a Fed formula in the United States. The Fed formula devised by the US Federal Reserve, according to one of its former economists, shows that typically, when house prices have been driven up for several years by low interest rates, when interest rates increase, prices begin to decline roughly 18 months to 2 years later. I believe that the ECB should follow this formula and develop an ECB formula because, at present, we are leaving it to people who are involved in the industry to make the forecasts, and they are the people – the financial institutions and others – who have most to gain.
The report urges the Commission to assess the quality of supervision and offshore location of hedge funds. It reiterates points made in the past about democratic scrutiny and the need to publish summary minutes. It draws attention to the fact that overdraft rates in the euro area vary from 7% to 13.5% and asks that the ECB evaluate this.
It ends by saying that the number of banknotes in circulation stood at 11.3 billion with a value of EUR 628.2 billion last year, but that it is concerned about the growth in the number of 50 euro, 100 euro and 500 euro banknotes. 500 euro banknotes alone have increased by 13.2%. My report, with the support of the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee, raises the possibility of criminal activities in the use of these large banknotes and says that it requires further examination by the ECB. I hope Mr Trichet will be in a position to respond to this report and, in particular – not today, but perhaps over a certain period – to consider my suggestion about an ECB formula to equate with the Fed formula so that there can be a true and accurate measure of the likely knock-on effect of interest rate increases on house prices in the Member States of the eurozone."@et5
"Arvoisa puhemies, olen iloinen, että tästä mietinnöstä keskustellaan samanaikaisesti euroaluetta koskevan mietinnön kanssa. Haluan myös tuoda esiin sen, että esittelemäni mietintö hyväksyttiin yksimielisesti talous- ja raha-asioiden valiokunnassa.
Puhun aluksi talouden tilanteesta. Vuonna 2006 euroalueen talouden elpymisestä tuli itseään ylläpitävä prosessi, jota ohjaa erityisesti kotimainen kysyntä. Vuonna 2006 luotiin kaksi miljoonaa työpaikkaa ja työttömyys laski 8,4 prosentista 7,6 prosenttiin. Elpymisen taustaa vasten haluan esittää mietinnön tärkeimmät kohdat. Äskettäisen elpymisen vuosi korkotason mahdollisen nostamisen olisi tapahduttava varovaisesti, jotta talouskasvua ei vaaranneta. On erittäin tärkeää, että palkat nousevat yhdenmukaisesti tuottavuuden kanssa, jotta säilytetään jäsenvaltioiden kilpailukyky ja mahdollistetaan työpaikkojen syntyminen ei-inflatorisessa ympäristössä. Keskeistä on julkisen talouden vakaus, joka on erityisen tärkeää nimenomaan hyvinä aikoina, jotta pitkäaikainen kasvu voidaan varmistaa.
Mietinnössä todetaan, että euroalueen perustamisen jälkeen kasvu on ollut suurempaa pienissä kuin suurissa talouksissa, ja erityisesti Irlanti, Suomi ja Luxemburg ovat saavuttaneet euroalueen keskiarvoa paremman kasvuvauhdin. Tällaisesta kehityksestä voitaisiin ottaa opiksi. Mietinnössä esitetään huoli siitä, että euron arvo lisääntyy edelleen suhteessa useimpiin tärkeisiin eurooppalaisiin valuuttoihin. EY:n perustamissopimuksen 111 artiklan nojalla neuvostolla on vastuu valuuttakurssipolitiikasta, mutta siinä ei määritellä, miten vastuuta on sovellettava.
Mietinnössä kehotetaan euroryhmää, neuvostoa ja EKP:tä yhteensovittamaan täysimääräisesti toimivaltansa käytön ja vastuidensa soveltamisen. Lisäksi mietinnössä kehotetaan EKP:tä seuraamaan tarkoin kehitystä, joka koskee euron käyttöä keskuspankkien varantovaluuttana, ja esittämään euron kansainvälistä asemaa koskevassa vuosikertomuksessaan määrällisiä tietoja ja analyyseja tämän vaikutuksista erityisesti vaihtokursseihin osalta. Pääjohtaja Trichet tietää, että joka kerta kun hän on viimeisen kahden vuoden aikana vieraillut talous- ja raha-asioiden valiokunnassa, olen tuonut esiin asuntojen hintoja koskevan asian. Olen siitä edelleen huolissani. Tämän vuoksi mietinnössä kehotetaan EKP:tä seuraamaan tarkoin tämän alan kehitystä, jolla saattaa olla vaikutusta reaalitalouteen. Mietinnössä kehotetaan EKP:tä esittelemään erilaisia etenemistapoja ja niiden hyvät puolet, kuten kiinteistöjen hintojen sisällyttäminen yhdenmukaistettuun kuluttajahintaindeksiin, erityisen indikaattorityypin laatiminen tai kansallisten markkinoiden erilaisuuteen perustuvien kansallisella tasolla toteutettavien erityistoimien ehdottaminen.
Puhun myöhemmin Yhdysvaltojen keskuspankin toimintamallista, Fed-formulasta. Ehkä nyt olisi aika kehittää EKP:n toimintamalli, jonka avulla voitaisiin paremmin ennustaa korkotason nousun todennäköisiä vaikutuksia asuntojen hintoihin. Mietinnössäni tuodaan esiin myös niin sanottuja sub-prime-lainoja koskeva kysymys ja todetaan, että EU voi ottaa opiksi Yhdysvaltojen taloudelle sub-prime-lainoista mahdollisesti koituvista vaikeuksista.
Haluan käyttää hetkisen Irlannin kannalta erityisen tärkeän asian käsittelemiseen, jolla saattaa olla vaikutusta myös muihin euroalueen valtioihin. Viime vuonna kiinteistövälitystoimisto Hook and McDonald ennusti asuntojen hintojen nousevan Irlannissa 9 prosenttia, Sherry Fitzgerald -kiinteistövälitystoimisto 8–10 prosenttia ja Friends First ja IIB 7 prosenttia, kun taas Allied Irish Banks ennusti nousun olevan 3–6 prosenttia. Asuntojen hintakehitystä mittaava Irlannin Permanent tsb/ESRI -indeksi osoittaa, että asuntojen hinnat laskivat tammikuun ja toukokuun 2007 välisenä aikana 2,1 prosenttia ja että niiden odotetaan edelleen laskevan Irlannissa. Sub-prime-luottojen – eli lainojen, joita myönnetään köyhemmälle väestönosalle, jonka tulot ovat epäsäännölliset tai jonka lainanmaksutausta on ongelmallinen – arvon ennustetaan kasvavan Irlannissa tänä vuonna 4 miljardiin euroon. Jos lainan suuruus on keskimäärin 200 000 tai 400 000 euroa, pelkästään Irlannissa tällaisia lainoja on myönnetty 10 000 tai 20 000 kappaletta. Sub-prime-luotonantajat ovat melko uusia toimijoita Irlannin markkinoilla ja veloittavat kuluja yleensä kulloisiakin asuntoluottokuluja kaksi kertaa suuremman määrän "kompensoidakseen" – kuten ne toteavat – luotonantajan korkeamman riskin. Yksikin Irlannissa toimiva hypoteekkiyritys on ottanut haltuunsa jo 30 asuntoa vuoden 2005 jälkeen.
Myös Yhdistyneen kuningaskunnan sub-prime-lainojen alalla näkyy huolestuttavia merkkejä. Jo jonkin aikaa on ollut tiedossa, että Yhdysvaltojen keskuspankilla on käytössään oma toimintamalli, Fed formula. Yhdysvaltojen keskuspankin laatima toimintamalli osoittaa erään pankin entisen ekonomistin mukaan, että silloin, kun alhainen korkotaso on useiden vuosien ajan vaikuttanut asuntojen hintoihin niitä korottavasti, on tyypillistä, että koronnousun jälkeen 1,5–2 vuoden kuluttua hinnat alkavat laskea voimakkaasti. EKP:n olisi mielestäni seurattava tätä toimintamallia ja kehitettävä oma toimintamallinsa, koska tällä hetkellä ennusteiden tekeminen jätetään alan toimijoiden tehtäväksi, ja nämä toimijat – rahoituslaitokset ja muut – ovat juuri niitä, joilla on eniten voitettavaa.
Mietinnössä kehotetaan komissiota arvioimaan sijoitus- ja pääomarahastojen valvonnan ja offshore-keskusten laatua. Siinä toistetaan demokraattisesta valvonnasta aikaisemmin esitetyt huomiot ja tarve julkaista kokouksista lyhyt tiivistävä pöytäkirja. Mietinnössä kiinnitetään huomiota siihen, että tilinylityksiä koskeva korkotaso vaihtelee euroalueella 7 prosentista 13,5 prosenttiin, ja kehotetaan EKP:tä perehtymään tähän asiaan.
Lopuksi mietinnössä tuodaan esiin, että viime vuonna käytössä olleiden seteleiden määrä oli 11,3 miljardia kappaletta ja niiden arvo oli 628,2 miljardia euroa ja että 50, 100 ja 500 euron seteleiden määrän kasvu on huolestuttavaa. Pelkästään 500 euron seteleiden määrä on lisääntynyt 13,2 prosenttia. Mietinnössäni, jolla on talous- ja raha-asioiden valiokunnan tuki, viitataan rikollisen toiminnan mahdollisuuteen mainittujen suurten seteleiden käytössä ja edellytetään tämän vuoksi EKP:ltä lisätutkimuksia. Toivon, että pääjohtaja Trichet voi kommentoida mietintöä ja erityisesti harkita – ei tänään vaan mahdollisesti jonkin ajan kuluttua – ehdotustani EKP:n toimintamallista, joka vastaisi Yhdysvaltojen keskuspankin toimintamallia ja jonka ansiosta käytössä olisi aito ja tarkka mittari, jolla voitaisiin arvioida korkotason nousun todennäköistä seurannaisvaikutusta euroalueen jäsenvaltioiden asuntojen hintoihin."@fi7
"Monsieur le Président, je suis ravi que le présent rapport soit débattu conjointement avec le rapport sur la zone euro. J’ajouterai que le rapport que je présente à été adopté à l’unanimité par la commission des affaires économiques et monétaires.
Commençons par la situation économique. La reprise économique dans la zone euro en 2006 est devenue un processus induit par des facteurs endogènes, principalement sous l’impulsion de la demande intérieure. Deux millions d’emplois ont été créés en 2006 et le chômage est tombé de 8,4 % à 7,6 %. Dans le cadre de cette reprise, je souhaiterais insister sur les principaux points du rapport. Sur la base de cette reprise récente, il convient de procéder avec prudence à tout nouveau relèvement des taux d’intérêt afin de ne pas mettre la croissance économique en péril. Il faut absolument que les salaires progressent parallèlement à l’évolution de la productivité afin de préserver la compétitivité dans les États membres et de permettre la création d’emplois dans un environnement non inflationniste. La consolidation budgétaire est essentielle et d’autant plus nécessaire en période de conjoncture favorable afin d’obtenir une croissance durable.
Le rapport signale le fait que, depuis la création de la zone euro, les petites économies ont enregistré de meilleurs résultats que les grandes économies en matière de croissance; ce sont surtout l’Irlande, la Finlande, la Grèce, le Luxembourg et l’Espagne qui ont atteint un taux de croissance moyen supérieur à la moyenne de la zone euro et nous estimons qu’il y a des leçons à tirer de telles évolutions. Le rapport exprime des préoccupations à propos de l’appréciation continue de l’euro par rapport à la plupart des grandes devises européennes. L’article 111 du Traité confère la responsabilité de la politique de change au Conseil sans toutefois spécifier les moyens de matérialiser cette responsabilité.
Le rapport invite l’Eurogroupe, le Conseil et la BCE à exercer leurs responsabilités et compétences respectives et à intensifier leur coordination. Le rapport demande aussi à la BCE de surveiller attentivement l’évolution de l’utilisation de l’euro comme monnaie de réserve par les banques centrales et, dans le cadre de son rapport annuel sur le rôle international de l’euro, de quantifier et d’analyser les conséquences de cette évolution, notamment en matière de taux de change. M. Trichet n’ignore pas que, chaque fois qu’il a participé à une réunion de la commission des affaires économiques et monétaires au cours de ces deux dernières années, j’ai soulevé avec lui la question des prix de l’immobilier. Cette question me préoccupe toujours. C’est pourquoi le rapport demande à la BCE de suivre de près cette évolution, qui est susceptible d’avoir des conséquences pour l’économie réelle. Le rapport demande à la BCE de présenter des solutions, avec leurs avantages respectifs, comme l’inclusion de l’immobilier dans l’indice des prix à la consommation harmonisé ou la mise au point d’un type spécifique d’indicateur ou encore qu’elle propose des mesures spécifiques à prendre à l’échelon national compte tenu des disparités des marchés nationaux.
Je parlerai ultérieurement de la formule de la Fed. Il est peut-être temps de mettre au point une formule de la BCE destinée à aider à prévoir les effets possibles des relèvements des taux d’intérêt sur les prix de l’immobilier. Mon rapport soulève également la question des prêts à haut risque et émet l’idée que l’UE pourrait tirer des leçons des difficultés que l’économie américaine semble rencontrer en ce qui concerne les prêts à haut risque.
Je souhaiterais consacrer un moment à une question qui concerne particulièrement l’Irlande, mais qui peut aussi intéresser les autres pays membres de la zone euro. L’année dernière, en Irlande, les agents immobiliers Hook and McDonald avaient prédit une hausse des prix de l’immobilier de 9 %, Sherry Fitzgerald avait prédit une hausse se situant entre 8 % et 10 %, pour Friends First et IIB, elle allait être de 7 % tandis que Allied Irish Banks prévoyaient une augmentation se situant entre 3 % et 6 %. Le dernier indice permanent irlandais tsb/ESRI montre en réalité que les prix de l’immobilier ont baissé de 2,1 % entre janvier et mai 2007 et qu’une nouvelle baisse est attendue en Irlande. Les prêts à haut risque, c’est-à-dire les prêts accordés aux personnes les plus pauvres, à celles dont les revenus sont irréguliers ou à celles qui ont eu dans le passé des difficultés à rembourser leurs emprunts, devraient passer cette année en Irlande à 4 milliards d’euros. Si l’emprunt moyen se chiffrait entre 200 000 et 400 000 euros, il y aurait dans la seule Irlande entre 10 000 et 20 000 emprunts de ce type. Les organismes de prêts à haut risque sont relativement nouveaux sur le marché irlandais et ils exigent généralement près du double du taux hypothécaire actuel afin de «compenser», comme ils disent, les prêteurs pour les risques accrus. Il y a même un cas où une société de prêts hypothécaires active en Irlande depuis 2005 a déjà saisi 30 habitations.
Des signes d’inquiétude se manifestent également en Grande-Bretagne à propos des prêts à haut risque. On connaît depuis un certain temps l’existence d’une formule Fed aux États-Unis. La formule de la Fed imaginée par la Réserve fédérale américaine montre, selon un de ses anciens économistes, qu’en général, lorsque des taux d’intérêt bas ont fait monter les prix de l’immobilier pendant plusieurs années, les prix commencent à baisser lorsque les taux d’intérêt augmentent, dans un délai d’environ 18 mois à 2 ans. J’estime que la BCE devrait suivre cette formule et mettre au point une formule de la BCE, parce que, pour le moment, nous laissons le soin de faire des prévisions aux personnes du secteur et ce sont précisément ces personnes - les institutions financières et autres - qui ont le plus à gagner.
Le rapport insiste auprès de la Commission pour qu’elle évalue la qualité de la surveillance des fonds spéculatifs dans les centres offshore. Il réitère certaines remarques formulées dans le passé à propos d’un contrôle démocratique et de la nécessité de publier des procès-verbaux succincts. Il attire l’attention sur le fait que les taux de découvert varient dans la zone euro de 7 % à 13,5 % et il demande que la BCE évalue cette situation.
Le rapport se termine en signalant que, l’année passée, le nombre de billets en circulation s’élevait à 11,3 milliards, pour une valeur de 628,2 milliards d’euros, mais que l’augmentation du nombre de billets de 50, 100 et 500 euros est inquiétante. Les seuls billets de 500 euros ont augmenté de 13,2 %. Le rapport que j’ai rédigé, avec le concours de la commission des affaires économiques et monétaires, soulève la possibilité que des activités criminelles soient liées à l’utilisation de ces grosses coupures et il demande que la BCE examine ce problème plus avant. J’espère que M. Trichet sera en mesure de répondre au présent rapport et qu’il pourra surtout - pas aujourd’hui, mais peut-être plus tard - examiner mon idée concernant une formule de la BCE comparable à la formule de la Fed afin de disposer d’un instrument de mesure véritable et précis des répercussions que les relèvements des taux d’intérêt peuvent avoir sur les prix de l’immobilier dans les États membres faisant partie de la zone euro."@fr8
"Mr President, I am happy for this report to be debated jointly with the report on the eurozone. I would add that the report I am presenting was adopted unanimously by the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs.
Starting with the economic situation, in 2006 the economic recovery in the eurozone became a self-sustaining process with domestic demand acting as the main driver. Two million jobs were created in 2006 and unemployment fell from 8.4% to 7.6%. In the context of this recovery, I would like to stress the main points of the report. Against the background of the recent recovery, any further raising of interest rates should be undertaken with caution in order not to endanger economic growth. It is crucial that wages increase in line with productivity in order to preserve competitiveness in Member States and to allow for job creation in a non-inflationary environment. Fiscal consolidation is key and all the more necessary in good times in order to achieve long-term growth.
The report observes that small economies have performed better than large economies since the creation of the eurozone in terms of growth, with notably Ireland, Finland, Greece, Luxembourg and Spain achieving a higher average growth rate than the eurozone average and we say that lessons might be drawn from such developments. The report expresses concern about the ongoing appreciation of the euro against most major European currencies. Article 111 of the Treaty assigns responsibility for exchange rate policy to the Council but without specifying how this responsibility should be exercised.
The report calls on the Eurogroup, the Council and the ECB to exercise their respective powers and responsibilities in full coordination. The report also calls on the ECB to monitor closely developments in the use of the euro as a reserve currency for central banks and, in the context of its annual report on the international role of the euro, to quantify and analyse the effects of this, particularly as regards exchange rates. Mr Trichet will be aware that every time he has appeared at Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee during the last two years I have raised with him the issue of house prices. This remains a concern of mine. Therefore, the report calls for the ECB to monitor closely these developments, which have the potential to have consequences for the real economy. The report contains a request that the ECB present ways forward with their respective advantages, such as including real estate in the harmonised index of consumer prices or devising a specific type of indicator or suggesting specific measures to be taken at national level due to heterogeneities among the national markets.
I refer later on to the Fed formula. Perhaps it is time to develop an ECB formula to help forecast the likely effect of interest rate increases on house prices. My report also raises the issue of sub-prime lending and suggests that lessons can be learned in the EU from the potential difficulties for the US economy of sub-prime lending.
I would like to take a moment to address an issue of particular concern to Ireland but which has potential interest for other eurozone members. Last year in Ireland house prices were forecast to increase by 9% by estate agents Hook and McDonald, by between 8% and 10% by Sherry Fitzgerald and by 7% by Friends First and IIB, while Allied Irish Banks forecast an increase of between 3% and 6%. The recent Irish Permanent tsb/ESRI index shows in fact that house prices fell by 2.1% between January and May 2007 and a further decline in Ireland is expected. Sub-prime lending – that is lending to poorer people, those with an irregular income stream or difficult history of meeting loans – is projected to grow to EUR 4 billion in Ireland this year. If the average loan was between EUR 200 000 and EUR 400 000, then between 10 000 and 20 000 such loans exist in Ireland alone. Sub-prime lenders are relatively new to the Irish market and generally charge about twice the going mortgage rate to ‘compensate’ – as they put it – lenders for higher risk. In one case a mortgage company operating in Ireland since 2005 has already repossessed 30 homes.
There are also signs of concern in Britain about sub-prime lending. It has been known for some time that there is a Fed formula in the United States. The Fed formula devised by the US Federal Reserve, according to one of its former economists, shows that typically, when house prices have been driven up for several years by low interest rates, when interest rates increase, prices begin to decline roughly 18 months to 2 years later. I believe that the ECB should follow this formula and develop an ECB formula because, at present, we are leaving it to people who are involved in the industry to make the forecasts, and they are the people – the financial institutions and others – who have most to gain.
The report urges the Commission to assess the quality of supervision and offshore location of hedge funds. It reiterates points made in the past about democratic scrutiny and the need to publish summary minutes. It draws attention to the fact that overdraft rates in the euro area vary from 7% to 13.5% and asks that the ECB evaluate this.
It ends by saying that the number of banknotes in circulation stood at 11.3 billion with a value of EUR 628.2 billion last year, but that it is concerned about the growth in the number of 50 euro, 100 euro and 500 euro banknotes. 500 euro banknotes alone have increased by 13.2%. My report, with the support of the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee, raises the possibility of criminal activities in the use of these large banknotes and says that it requires further examination by the ECB. I hope Mr Trichet will be in a position to respond to this report and, in particular – not today, but perhaps over a certain period – to consider my suggestion about an ECB formula to equate with the Fed formula so that there can be a true and accurate measure of the likely knock-on effect of interest rate increases on house prices in the Member States of the eurozone."@hu11
"Signor Presidente, sono lieto che la mia relazione sia discussa congiuntamente con la relazione sull’area dell’euro. Aggiungo che essa è stata adottata all’unanimità in sede di commissione per i problemi economici e monetari.
Partendo dalla situazione economica, nel 2006 la ripresa dell’economia nell’area dell’euro è oramai un processo autosostenuto nell’ambito del quale la domanda interna è il principale elemento trainante. Nel 2006 sono stati creati due milioni di posti di lavoro e la disoccupazione è scesa dall’8,4 al 7,6 per cento. Nel contesto di tale ripresa, desidero sottolineare i punti salienti della relazione. A fronte della recente ripresa, qualunque ulteriore rialzo dei tassi d’interesse deve essere intrapreso con cautela per non compromettere la crescita economica. E’ cruciale che i salari aumentino in linea con la produttività per preservare la competitività negli Stati membri e per consentire la creazione di posti di lavoro in un ambiente non inflazionistico. Il consolidamento fiscale è fondamentale e ancor più necessario in periodi favorevoli al fine di realizzare una crescita di lungo termine.
La relazione rileva che, in termini di crescita, sin dalla creazione dell’area dell’euro le piccole economie, cioè l’Irlanda, la Finlandia, la Grecia, il Lussemburgo e la Spagna, che hanno un tasso di crescita medio superiore alla media dell’area dell’euro, si sono comportate meglio delle grandi e affermiamo che da tali sviluppi si possono trarre degli insegnamenti. La relazione esprime preoccupazione in merito al continuo apprezzamento dell’euro rispetto alla maggioranza delle principali valute europee. L’articolo 111 del Trattato assegna al Consiglio la responsabilità per la politica del cambio, senza peraltro specificare come tale responsabilità debba essere esercitata.
La relazione invita l’Eurogruppo, il Consiglio e la BCE a esercitare le rispettive competenze e responsabilità in pieno coordinamento. La relazione esorta altresì la BCE a sorvegliare da vicino gli sviluppi nell’utilizzo dell’euro quale valuta di riserva per le banche centrali e, nel contesto della relazione annuale sul ruolo internazionale dell’euro, la sollecita a quantificare e analizzare gli effetti di tale fenomeno, in particolare rispetto ai tassi di cambio. Il Presidente Trichet saprà che ogni volta che è comparso di fronte alla commissione per i problemi economici e monetari nel corso degli ultimi due anni gli ho sottoposto la questione dei prezzi degli immobili. Questo tema continua a rimanere una mia preoccupazione. Pertanto la relazione invita la BCE a monitorare attentamente tali sviluppi, che possono ripercuotersi sull’economia reale. La relazione contiene la richiesta che la BCE presenti una serie di opzioni con i relativi vantaggi, come ad esempio includere gli immobili nell’indice armonizzato dei prezzi al consumo o definire un tipo specifico di indicatore oppure proporre misure specifiche da adottarsi a livello nazionale in funzione dell’eterogeneità dei mercati nazionali.
Più avanti parlo della formula della
. Forse è giunto il momento di elaborare una formula BCE per aiutare a prevedere il probabile effetto dell’aumento dei tassi d’interesse sui prezzi degli immobili. La mia relazione solleva inoltre la questione dei mutui
e suggerisce di far tesoro nell’UE delle potenziali difficoltà per l’economia statunitense dovute ai mutui
.
Desidero soffermarmi brevemente su una questione di particolare interesse per l’Irlanda ma che, potenzialmente, può riguardare altri membri dell’area dell’euro. L’anno scorso in Irlanda il tasso di aumento dei prezzi degli immobili era stato previsto nei termini del 9 per cento dagli agenti immobiliari
dell’8-10 per cento da
e del 7 per cento da
mentre
avevano previsto un tasso di aumento compreso tra il 3 e il 6 per cento. Il recente indice
invece dimostra che in Irlanda le quotazioni immobiliari sono diminuite del 2,1 per cento tra gennaio e maggio 2007 e che si attende un ulteriore calo. I mutui
cioè i prestiti immobiliari concessi a persone meno abbienti, che hanno un flusso di reddito irregolare o una storia di insolvibilità, quest’anno in Irlanda potrebbero toccare i 4 miliardi di euro. Se il prestito medio è di 200 000-400 000 euro, soltanto in Irlanda esistono tra 10 000 e 20 000 prestiti di questo tipo. I prestatori
sono una figura relativamente nuova per il mercato irlandese e normalmente impongono un tasso circa doppio rispetto al tasso dei mutui correnti per “compensare” – come dicono – il rischio maggiore. In un caso un istituto di credito ipotecario che opera in Irlanda è già rientrato in possesso di 30 immobili dal 2005.
Anche nel Regno Unito ci sono segnali di preoccupazione in merito ai mutui
. E’ noto da qualche tempo che negli Stati Uniti è in uso una formula
. Tale formula, elaborata dalla
americana, secondo uno dei suoi ex economisti, dimostra che, tipicamente, dopo che i prezzi degli immobili sono rincarati per svariati anni grazie ai bassi tassi d’interesse, quando i tassi aumentano i prezzi cominciano a diminuire all’incirca entro i 18-24 mesi successivi. Credo che la BCE dovrebbe orientarsi a questa formula e mettere a punto una formula BCE, perché attualmente lasciamo che siano gli operatori del settore a elaborare previsioni, quando sono proprio loro – gli istituti finanziari e gli altri – ad avere di più da guadagnare.
La relazione invita la Commissione a monitorare la qualità della supervisione e della collocazione
degli
ribadisce quanto già affermato in passato in merito al controllo democratico e alla necessità di pubblicare i sunti dei verbali. La relazione attira inoltre l’attenzione sul fatto che i tassi d’interesse sullo scoperto nell’area dell’euro variano dal 7 al 13,5 per cento e chiede alla BCE di procedere a una valutazione.
Si conclude con l’affermazione che l’anno scorso il numero di banconote in circolazione ammontava a 11,3 miliardi, per un valore di 628,2 miliardi di euro, esprimendo la preoccupazione in merito all’incremento del numero di banconote da 50, 100 e 500 euro. Le sole banconote da 500 euro sono aumentate del 13,2 per cento. La mia relazione, con il sostegno della commissione per i problemi economici e monetari, solleva l’ipotesi che sia possibile che tali banconote di denominazione elevata possano essere utilizzate in attività criminali e sostiene che è necessario un ulteriore esame da parte della BCE. Spero che il Presidente Trichet sarà in grado di rispondere alla relazione e che, in particolare, non oggi, ma magari tra un certo periodo, prenderà in considerazione il mio suggerimento circa una formula BCE analoga alla formula
affinché sia disponibile una misura autentica e accurata del possibile effetto deleterio dell’aumento dei tassi d’interesse sui prezzi degli immobili negli Stati membri dell’area dell’euro."@it12
"Mr President, I am happy for this report to be debated jointly with the report on the eurozone. I would add that the report I am presenting was adopted unanimously by the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs.
Starting with the economic situation, in 2006 the economic recovery in the eurozone became a self-sustaining process with domestic demand acting as the main driver. Two million jobs were created in 2006 and unemployment fell from 8.4% to 7.6%. In the context of this recovery, I would like to stress the main points of the report. Against the background of the recent recovery, any further raising of interest rates should be undertaken with caution in order not to endanger economic growth. It is crucial that wages increase in line with productivity in order to preserve competitiveness in Member States and to allow for job creation in a non-inflationary environment. Fiscal consolidation is key and all the more necessary in good times in order to achieve long-term growth.
The report observes that small economies have performed better than large economies since the creation of the eurozone in terms of growth, with notably Ireland, Finland, Greece, Luxembourg and Spain achieving a higher average growth rate than the eurozone average and we say that lessons might be drawn from such developments. The report expresses concern about the ongoing appreciation of the euro against most major European currencies. Article 111 of the Treaty assigns responsibility for exchange rate policy to the Council but without specifying how this responsibility should be exercised.
The report calls on the Eurogroup, the Council and the ECB to exercise their respective powers and responsibilities in full coordination. The report also calls on the ECB to monitor closely developments in the use of the euro as a reserve currency for central banks and, in the context of its annual report on the international role of the euro, to quantify and analyse the effects of this, particularly as regards exchange rates. Mr Trichet will be aware that every time he has appeared at Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee during the last two years I have raised with him the issue of house prices. This remains a concern of mine. Therefore, the report calls for the ECB to monitor closely these developments, which have the potential to have consequences for the real economy. The report contains a request that the ECB present ways forward with their respective advantages, such as including real estate in the harmonised index of consumer prices or devising a specific type of indicator or suggesting specific measures to be taken at national level due to heterogeneities among the national markets.
I refer later on to the Fed formula. Perhaps it is time to develop an ECB formula to help forecast the likely effect of interest rate increases on house prices. My report also raises the issue of sub-prime lending and suggests that lessons can be learned in the EU from the potential difficulties for the US economy of sub-prime lending.
I would like to take a moment to address an issue of particular concern to Ireland but which has potential interest for other eurozone members. Last year in Ireland house prices were forecast to increase by 9% by estate agents Hook and McDonald, by between 8% and 10% by Sherry Fitzgerald and by 7% by Friends First and IIB, while Allied Irish Banks forecast an increase of between 3% and 6%. The recent Irish Permanent tsb/ESRI index shows in fact that house prices fell by 2.1% between January and May 2007 and a further decline in Ireland is expected. Sub-prime lending – that is lending to poorer people, those with an irregular income stream or difficult history of meeting loans – is projected to grow to EUR 4 billion in Ireland this year. If the average loan was between EUR 200 000 and EUR 400 000, then between 10 000 and 20 000 such loans exist in Ireland alone. Sub-prime lenders are relatively new to the Irish market and generally charge about twice the going mortgage rate to ‘compensate’ – as they put it – lenders for higher risk. In one case a mortgage company operating in Ireland since 2005 has already repossessed 30 homes.
There are also signs of concern in Britain about sub-prime lending. It has been known for some time that there is a Fed formula in the United States. The Fed formula devised by the US Federal Reserve, according to one of its former economists, shows that typically, when house prices have been driven up for several years by low interest rates, when interest rates increase, prices begin to decline roughly 18 months to 2 years later. I believe that the ECB should follow this formula and develop an ECB formula because, at present, we are leaving it to people who are involved in the industry to make the forecasts, and they are the people – the financial institutions and others – who have most to gain.
The report urges the Commission to assess the quality of supervision and offshore location of hedge funds. It reiterates points made in the past about democratic scrutiny and the need to publish summary minutes. It draws attention to the fact that overdraft rates in the euro area vary from 7% to 13.5% and asks that the ECB evaluate this.
It ends by saying that the number of banknotes in circulation stood at 11.3 billion with a value of EUR 628.2 billion last year, but that it is concerned about the growth in the number of 50 euro, 100 euro and 500 euro banknotes. 500 euro banknotes alone have increased by 13.2%. My report, with the support of the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee, raises the possibility of criminal activities in the use of these large banknotes and says that it requires further examination by the ECB. I hope Mr Trichet will be in a position to respond to this report and, in particular – not today, but perhaps over a certain period – to consider my suggestion about an ECB formula to equate with the Fed formula so that there can be a true and accurate measure of the likely knock-on effect of interest rate increases on house prices in the Member States of the eurozone."@lt14
"Mr President, I am happy for this report to be debated jointly with the report on the eurozone. I would add that the report I am presenting was adopted unanimously by the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs.
Starting with the economic situation, in 2006 the economic recovery in the eurozone became a self-sustaining process with domestic demand acting as the main driver. Two million jobs were created in 2006 and unemployment fell from 8.4% to 7.6%. In the context of this recovery, I would like to stress the main points of the report. Against the background of the recent recovery, any further raising of interest rates should be undertaken with caution in order not to endanger economic growth. It is crucial that wages increase in line with productivity in order to preserve competitiveness in Member States and to allow for job creation in a non-inflationary environment. Fiscal consolidation is key and all the more necessary in good times in order to achieve long-term growth.
The report observes that small economies have performed better than large economies since the creation of the eurozone in terms of growth, with notably Ireland, Finland, Greece, Luxembourg and Spain achieving a higher average growth rate than the eurozone average and we say that lessons might be drawn from such developments. The report expresses concern about the ongoing appreciation of the euro against most major European currencies. Article 111 of the Treaty assigns responsibility for exchange rate policy to the Council but without specifying how this responsibility should be exercised.
The report calls on the Eurogroup, the Council and the ECB to exercise their respective powers and responsibilities in full coordination. The report also calls on the ECB to monitor closely developments in the use of the euro as a reserve currency for central banks and, in the context of its annual report on the international role of the euro, to quantify and analyse the effects of this, particularly as regards exchange rates. Mr Trichet will be aware that every time he has appeared at Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee during the last two years I have raised with him the issue of house prices. This remains a concern of mine. Therefore, the report calls for the ECB to monitor closely these developments, which have the potential to have consequences for the real economy. The report contains a request that the ECB present ways forward with their respective advantages, such as including real estate in the harmonised index of consumer prices or devising a specific type of indicator or suggesting specific measures to be taken at national level due to heterogeneities among the national markets.
I refer later on to the Fed formula. Perhaps it is time to develop an ECB formula to help forecast the likely effect of interest rate increases on house prices. My report also raises the issue of sub-prime lending and suggests that lessons can be learned in the EU from the potential difficulties for the US economy of sub-prime lending.
I would like to take a moment to address an issue of particular concern to Ireland but which has potential interest for other eurozone members. Last year in Ireland house prices were forecast to increase by 9% by estate agents Hook and McDonald, by between 8% and 10% by Sherry Fitzgerald and by 7% by Friends First and IIB, while Allied Irish Banks forecast an increase of between 3% and 6%. The recent Irish Permanent tsb/ESRI index shows in fact that house prices fell by 2.1% between January and May 2007 and a further decline in Ireland is expected. Sub-prime lending – that is lending to poorer people, those with an irregular income stream or difficult history of meeting loans – is projected to grow to EUR 4 billion in Ireland this year. If the average loan was between EUR 200 000 and EUR 400 000, then between 10 000 and 20 000 such loans exist in Ireland alone. Sub-prime lenders are relatively new to the Irish market and generally charge about twice the going mortgage rate to ‘compensate’ – as they put it – lenders for higher risk. In one case a mortgage company operating in Ireland since 2005 has already repossessed 30 homes.
There are also signs of concern in Britain about sub-prime lending. It has been known for some time that there is a Fed formula in the United States. The Fed formula devised by the US Federal Reserve, according to one of its former economists, shows that typically, when house prices have been driven up for several years by low interest rates, when interest rates increase, prices begin to decline roughly 18 months to 2 years later. I believe that the ECB should follow this formula and develop an ECB formula because, at present, we are leaving it to people who are involved in the industry to make the forecasts, and they are the people – the financial institutions and others – who have most to gain.
The report urges the Commission to assess the quality of supervision and offshore location of hedge funds. It reiterates points made in the past about democratic scrutiny and the need to publish summary minutes. It draws attention to the fact that overdraft rates in the euro area vary from 7% to 13.5% and asks that the ECB evaluate this.
It ends by saying that the number of banknotes in circulation stood at 11.3 billion with a value of EUR 628.2 billion last year, but that it is concerned about the growth in the number of 50 euro, 100 euro and 500 euro banknotes. 500 euro banknotes alone have increased by 13.2%. My report, with the support of the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee, raises the possibility of criminal activities in the use of these large banknotes and says that it requires further examination by the ECB. I hope Mr Trichet will be in a position to respond to this report and, in particular – not today, but perhaps over a certain period – to consider my suggestion about an ECB formula to equate with the Fed formula so that there can be a true and accurate measure of the likely knock-on effect of interest rate increases on house prices in the Member States of the eurozone."@lv13
"Mr President, I am happy for this report to be debated jointly with the report on the eurozone. I would add that the report I am presenting was adopted unanimously by the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs.
Starting with the economic situation, in 2006 the economic recovery in the eurozone became a self-sustaining process with domestic demand acting as the main driver. Two million jobs were created in 2006 and unemployment fell from 8.4% to 7.6%. In the context of this recovery, I would like to stress the main points of the report. Against the background of the recent recovery, any further raising of interest rates should be undertaken with caution in order not to endanger economic growth. It is crucial that wages increase in line with productivity in order to preserve competitiveness in Member States and to allow for job creation in a non-inflationary environment. Fiscal consolidation is key and all the more necessary in good times in order to achieve long-term growth.
The report observes that small economies have performed better than large economies since the creation of the eurozone in terms of growth, with notably Ireland, Finland, Greece, Luxembourg and Spain achieving a higher average growth rate than the eurozone average and we say that lessons might be drawn from such developments. The report expresses concern about the ongoing appreciation of the euro against most major European currencies. Article 111 of the Treaty assigns responsibility for exchange rate policy to the Council but without specifying how this responsibility should be exercised.
The report calls on the Eurogroup, the Council and the ECB to exercise their respective powers and responsibilities in full coordination. The report also calls on the ECB to monitor closely developments in the use of the euro as a reserve currency for central banks and, in the context of its annual report on the international role of the euro, to quantify and analyse the effects of this, particularly as regards exchange rates. Mr Trichet will be aware that every time he has appeared at Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee during the last two years I have raised with him the issue of house prices. This remains a concern of mine. Therefore, the report calls for the ECB to monitor closely these developments, which have the potential to have consequences for the real economy. The report contains a request that the ECB present ways forward with their respective advantages, such as including real estate in the harmonised index of consumer prices or devising a specific type of indicator or suggesting specific measures to be taken at national level due to heterogeneities among the national markets.
I refer later on to the Fed formula. Perhaps it is time to develop an ECB formula to help forecast the likely effect of interest rate increases on house prices. My report also raises the issue of sub-prime lending and suggests that lessons can be learned in the EU from the potential difficulties for the US economy of sub-prime lending.
I would like to take a moment to address an issue of particular concern to Ireland but which has potential interest for other eurozone members. Last year in Ireland house prices were forecast to increase by 9% by estate agents Hook and McDonald, by between 8% and 10% by Sherry Fitzgerald and by 7% by Friends First and IIB, while Allied Irish Banks forecast an increase of between 3% and 6%. The recent Irish Permanent tsb/ESRI index shows in fact that house prices fell by 2.1% between January and May 2007 and a further decline in Ireland is expected. Sub-prime lending – that is lending to poorer people, those with an irregular income stream or difficult history of meeting loans – is projected to grow to EUR 4 billion in Ireland this year. If the average loan was between EUR 200 000 and EUR 400 000, then between 10 000 and 20 000 such loans exist in Ireland alone. Sub-prime lenders are relatively new to the Irish market and generally charge about twice the going mortgage rate to ‘compensate’ – as they put it – lenders for higher risk. In one case a mortgage company operating in Ireland since 2005 has already repossessed 30 homes.
There are also signs of concern in Britain about sub-prime lending. It has been known for some time that there is a Fed formula in the United States. The Fed formula devised by the US Federal Reserve, according to one of its former economists, shows that typically, when house prices have been driven up for several years by low interest rates, when interest rates increase, prices begin to decline roughly 18 months to 2 years later. I believe that the ECB should follow this formula and develop an ECB formula because, at present, we are leaving it to people who are involved in the industry to make the forecasts, and they are the people – the financial institutions and others – who have most to gain.
The report urges the Commission to assess the quality of supervision and offshore location of hedge funds. It reiterates points made in the past about democratic scrutiny and the need to publish summary minutes. It draws attention to the fact that overdraft rates in the euro area vary from 7% to 13.5% and asks that the ECB evaluate this.
It ends by saying that the number of banknotes in circulation stood at 11.3 billion with a value of EUR 628.2 billion last year, but that it is concerned about the growth in the number of 50 euro, 100 euro and 500 euro banknotes. 500 euro banknotes alone have increased by 13.2%. My report, with the support of the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee, raises the possibility of criminal activities in the use of these large banknotes and says that it requires further examination by the ECB. I hope Mr Trichet will be in a position to respond to this report and, in particular – not today, but perhaps over a certain period – to consider my suggestion about an ECB formula to equate with the Fed formula so that there can be a true and accurate measure of the likely knock-on effect of interest rate increases on house prices in the Member States of the eurozone."@mt15
"Mijnheer de Voorzitter, ik ben blij dat dit verslag gezamenlijk met het verslag over de eurozone wordt besproken. Ik zou daaraan willen toevoegen dat het verslag dat ik presenteer unaniem is aangenomen door de Commissie economische en monetaire zaken.
Laten we beginnen met de economische situatie: in 2006 werd het economische herstel van de eurozone een zichzelf onderhoudend proces met de binnenlandse vraag als voornaamste drijvende kracht. Twee miljoen banen werden gecreëerd in 2006 en de werkloosheid daalde van 8,4 procent tot 7,6 procent. Tegen de achtergrond van dit herstel wil ik graag de hoofdpunten van het verslag benadrukken. In het licht van het recente herstel moet een verdere verhoging van de rentetarieven met de nodige voorzichtigheid gebeuren om de economische groei niet in gevaar te brengen. Het is cruciaal dat de lonen gelijke tred houden met de ontwikkeling van de productiviteit teneinde het concurrentievermogen van de lidstaten te behouden en het creëren van banen mogelijk te maken in een non-inflationaire omgeving. Begrotingsconsolidatie is cruciaal en des te noodzakelijker in voorspoedige tijden, teneinde groei op lange termijn mogelijk te maken.
Het verslag stelt vast dat kleine economieën op het gebied van groei beter hebben gepresteerd dan grote economieën sinds de invoering van de eurozone, waarbij met name Ierland, Finland, Griekenland, Luxemburg en Spanje een hogere gemiddelde groei hebben bereikt dan het gemiddelde van de eurozone, en we zijn van mening dat lessen kunnen worden geleerd van dergelijke ontwikkelingen. Het verslag toont zich bezorgd over de voortdurende waardevermeerdering van de euro ten opzichte van de meeste Europese munteenheden. Op grond van artikel 111 van het Verdrag is de Raad verantwoordelijk voor het wisselkoersbeleid, zonder dat evenwel nader wordt aangegeven op welke wijze aan deze bevoegdheid inhoud dient te worden gegeven.
Het verslag verzoekt de Eurogroep, de Raad en de ECB hun respectieve bevoegdheid ten volle uit te oefenen en te coördineren. Ook verzoekt het verslag het ECB met aandacht toe te zien op de ontwikkeling van het gebruik van de euro als reservevaluta voor centrale banken en om, in het kader van haar jaarverslag over de internationale rol van de euro, aan te geven om welke hoeveelheden het gaat en de gevolgen daarvan, met name op het gebied van de wisselkoersen, te analyseren. Het zal de heer Trichet niet ontgaan zijn dat telkens wanneer hij in de afgelopen twee jaar voor de Commissie economische en monetaire zaken van het Parlement verscheen, ik de kwestie van onroerendgoedprijzen met hem heb aangekaart. Dit blijft een punt van zorg voor mij. Het verslag verzoekt de ECB dan ook deze ontwikkelingen goed in het oog te houden, aangezien deze mogelijk gevolgen hebben voor de reële economie. Het verslag verzoekt de ECB mogelijke aanpakken met de daaraan verbonden voordelen te presenteren, zoals het opnemen van onroerend goed in de geharmoniseerde index van consumentenprijzen of het ontwikkelen van een specifiek soort indicator, of specifieke maatregelen voor te stellen die op nationaal niveau genomen kunnen worden, met het oog op de verschillen die tussen de nationale markten bestaan.
Ik zal later ingaan op de Fed-formule. Wellicht is het tijd om een ECB-formule te ontwikkelen als hulpmiddel om de waarschijnlijke gevolgen van renteverhogingen op onroerendgoedprijzen te voorspellen. Mijn verslag gaat verder in op de kwestie van
en stelt dat lessen kunnen worden geleerd binnen de EU van de potentiële problemen die
oplevert voor de Amerikaanse economie.
Ik zou graag kort willen stilstaan bij een uiterst zorgwekkende kwestie voor Ierland, maar die mogelijk ook van belang is voor andere leden van de eurozone. Vorig jaar voorspelde makelaarskantoor Hook and McDonald dat de huizenprijzen in Ierland met 9 procent zouden stijgen; Sherry Fitzgerald hield het op 8 à 10 procent en Friends First en IIB op 7 procent, terwijl Allied Irish Banks uitging van een stijging tussen 3 en 6 procent. Uit de recente Irish Permanent tsb/ESRI-index blijkt nu dat de huizenprijzen in Ierland tussen januari en mei 2007 met 2,1 procent zijn gedaald en een verdere daling ligt in de lijn der verwachtingen. Dit jaar zal
dat wil zeggen lenen aan armere mensen, mensen met onregelmatige inkomsten of moeilijke historie met het afbetalen van leningen – naar verwachting toenemen tot 4 miljard euro in Ierland. Als de gemiddelde lening tussen 200 000 en 400 000 euro bedroeg, dan zijn er alleen al in Ierland 10 000 à 20 000 van dergelijke leningen. Sub-prime leningverstrekkers zijn een vrij nieuw fenomeen op de Ierse markt en vragen over het algemeen tweemaal de gangbare hypotheekrente om leningverstrekkers te ‘compenseren’ – zoals ze het zelf uitdrukken – voor hogere risico’s. In één geval heeft een hypotheekbank die sinds 2005 actief is in Ierland al dertig huizen weer in bezit genomen.
Ook in Groot-Brittannië begint men vraagtekens te zetten bij
. Al enige tijd is bekend dat er een Fed-formule bestaat in de Verenigde Staten. De door de Amerikaanse Federal Reserve bedachte Fed-formule laat volgens een van haar voormalige economen zien dat doorgaans, wanneer huizenprijzen meerdere jaren achtereen opgedreven zijn door lage rentetarieven, zodra deze rente stijgt de prijzen ruwweg achttien maanden tot twee jaar later gaan dalen. Ik denk dat de ECB deze formule ook moet hanteren en een ECB-formule moet ontwikkelen, omdat we het momenteel aan mensen uit de bedrijfstak overlaten om de prognoses op te stellen, en dat zijn juist degenen – waaronder de financiële instellingen – die er het meest baat bij hebben.
Het verslag dringt er bij de Commissie op aan de kwaliteit van het toezicht op offshore-locaties en hedge funds te beoordelen. Het herhaalt eerder geformuleerde verzoeken over democratische controle en de noodzaak om beknopte verslagen van de vergaderingen te publiceren. Het vestigt de aandacht op het feit dat de rentetarieven op voorschotten in rekening-courant uiteenlopen van 7 procent tot 13,5 procent en vraagt de ECB dit verder te onderzoeken.
Tot slot stelt het verslag dat het aantal bankbiljetten in omloop eind vorig jaar 11,3 miljard bedroeg, met een waarde van 628,2 miljard euro, maar dat het bezorgd is over de toename van het aantal bankbiljetten van 50, 100 en 500 euro. Bankbiljetten van 500 euro zijn alleen al met 13,2 procent toegenomen. Mijn verslag, en daarin wordt het gesteund door de Commissie economische en monetaire zaken, wijst op mogelijke criminele activiteiten bij het gebruik van dergelijke grote coupures en stelt dat dit verder onderzoek door de ECB vereist. Ik hoop dat de heer Trichet in staat zal zijn te reageren op dit verslag en met name – niet vandaag maar misschien over enige tijd – zich te buigen over mijn suggestie over een ECB-formule als tegenhanger van de Fed-formule zodat we beschikken over een heuse en accurate indicator voor het waarschijnlijke effect van renteverhogingen op huizenprijzen in de lidstaten van de eurozone."@nl3
"Mr President, I am happy for this report to be debated jointly with the report on the eurozone. I would add that the report I am presenting was adopted unanimously by the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs.
Starting with the economic situation, in 2006 the economic recovery in the eurozone became a self-sustaining process with domestic demand acting as the main driver. Two million jobs were created in 2006 and unemployment fell from 8.4% to 7.6%. In the context of this recovery, I would like to stress the main points of the report. Against the background of the recent recovery, any further raising of interest rates should be undertaken with caution in order not to endanger economic growth. It is crucial that wages increase in line with productivity in order to preserve competitiveness in Member States and to allow for job creation in a non-inflationary environment. Fiscal consolidation is key and all the more necessary in good times in order to achieve long-term growth.
The report observes that small economies have performed better than large economies since the creation of the eurozone in terms of growth, with notably Ireland, Finland, Greece, Luxembourg and Spain achieving a higher average growth rate than the eurozone average and we say that lessons might be drawn from such developments. The report expresses concern about the ongoing appreciation of the euro against most major European currencies. Article 111 of the Treaty assigns responsibility for exchange rate policy to the Council but without specifying how this responsibility should be exercised.
The report calls on the Eurogroup, the Council and the ECB to exercise their respective powers and responsibilities in full coordination. The report also calls on the ECB to monitor closely developments in the use of the euro as a reserve currency for central banks and, in the context of its annual report on the international role of the euro, to quantify and analyse the effects of this, particularly as regards exchange rates. Mr Trichet will be aware that every time he has appeared at Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee during the last two years I have raised with him the issue of house prices. This remains a concern of mine. Therefore, the report calls for the ECB to monitor closely these developments, which have the potential to have consequences for the real economy. The report contains a request that the ECB present ways forward with their respective advantages, such as including real estate in the harmonised index of consumer prices or devising a specific type of indicator or suggesting specific measures to be taken at national level due to heterogeneities among the national markets.
I refer later on to the Fed formula. Perhaps it is time to develop an ECB formula to help forecast the likely effect of interest rate increases on house prices. My report also raises the issue of sub-prime lending and suggests that lessons can be learned in the EU from the potential difficulties for the US economy of sub-prime lending.
I would like to take a moment to address an issue of particular concern to Ireland but which has potential interest for other eurozone members. Last year in Ireland house prices were forecast to increase by 9% by estate agents Hook and McDonald, by between 8% and 10% by Sherry Fitzgerald and by 7% by Friends First and IIB, while Allied Irish Banks forecast an increase of between 3% and 6%. The recent Irish Permanent tsb/ESRI index shows in fact that house prices fell by 2.1% between January and May 2007 and a further decline in Ireland is expected. Sub-prime lending – that is lending to poorer people, those with an irregular income stream or difficult history of meeting loans – is projected to grow to EUR 4 billion in Ireland this year. If the average loan was between EUR 200 000 and EUR 400 000, then between 10 000 and 20 000 such loans exist in Ireland alone. Sub-prime lenders are relatively new to the Irish market and generally charge about twice the going mortgage rate to ‘compensate’ – as they put it – lenders for higher risk. In one case a mortgage company operating in Ireland since 2005 has already repossessed 30 homes.
There are also signs of concern in Britain about sub-prime lending. It has been known for some time that there is a Fed formula in the United States. The Fed formula devised by the US Federal Reserve, according to one of its former economists, shows that typically, when house prices have been driven up for several years by low interest rates, when interest rates increase, prices begin to decline roughly 18 months to 2 years later. I believe that the ECB should follow this formula and develop an ECB formula because, at present, we are leaving it to people who are involved in the industry to make the forecasts, and they are the people – the financial institutions and others – who have most to gain.
The report urges the Commission to assess the quality of supervision and offshore location of hedge funds. It reiterates points made in the past about democratic scrutiny and the need to publish summary minutes. It draws attention to the fact that overdraft rates in the euro area vary from 7% to 13.5% and asks that the ECB evaluate this.
It ends by saying that the number of banknotes in circulation stood at 11.3 billion with a value of EUR 628.2 billion last year, but that it is concerned about the growth in the number of 50 euro, 100 euro and 500 euro banknotes. 500 euro banknotes alone have increased by 13.2%. My report, with the support of the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee, raises the possibility of criminal activities in the use of these large banknotes and says that it requires further examination by the ECB. I hope Mr Trichet will be in a position to respond to this report and, in particular – not today, but perhaps over a certain period – to consider my suggestion about an ECB formula to equate with the Fed formula so that there can be a true and accurate measure of the likely knock-on effect of interest rate increases on house prices in the Member States of the eurozone."@pl16
"Senhor Presidente, congratulo-me com o facto de o presente relatório ser debatido em conjunto com o relatório sobre a zona euro. Acrescentaria que o relatório que apresento foi adoptado por unanimidade pela Comissão dos Assuntos Económicos e Monetários.
Começando pela situação económica, em 2006, a retoma económica na zona euro tornou-se um processo auto-sustentado, cujo motor principal foi a procura interna. Foram criados 2 milhões de empregos em 2006 e o desemprego baixou de 8,4% para 7,5%. Neste quadro de retoma, gostaria de salientar os principais pontos do relatório. A propósito desta recuperação, quero focar os principais pontos do relatório. Tendo como pano de findo a retoma que se tem verificado ultimamente, qualquer novo aumento das taxas de juro deve ser adoptado com prudência, a fim de não pôr em risco o crescimento económico. Considero que é crucial que os aumentos salariais sejam conformes à evolução da produtividade, a fim de salvaguardar a competitividade dos Estados-Membros e permitir criar postos de trabalho num ambiente não inflacionista. A consolidação fiscal é essencial e tanto mais necessária quando a conjuntura é favorável, tendo em vista o crescimento a longo prazo.
O relatório observa que determinadas economias da zona euro registam um desempenho substancialmente melhor do que outras economias de maior dimensão em termos de crescimento desde a criação da zona euro, registando, nomeadamente, a Irlanda, o Luxemburgo, a Grécia, a Finlândia e a Espanha uma taxa média de crescimento superior à média da zona euro; considera que seria possível extrair ensinamentos úteis desta evolução. O relatório manifesta a sua preocupação face à apreciação contínua do euro em relação à maioria das principais divisas; recorda neste contexto que o Tratado, no seu artigo 111º, atribui a responsabilidade da política cambial ao Conselho, sem todavia especificar os meios de materializar essa competência.
O relatório convida o Eurogrupo, o Conselho e o BCE a exercerem plenamente as respectivas competências e a intensificarem a coordenação das suas acções em matéria de política cambial. O relatório também solicita ao BCE que acompanhe atentamente a evolução da utilização do euro como moeda de reserva pelos bancos centrais e que apresente, no âmbito do seu relatório anual sobre o papel internacional do euro, uma quantificação e análise das respectivas consequências, designadamente em matéria de taxas de câmbio. O Senhor Presidente Trichet sabe perfeitamente que sempre que compareceu na Comissão Parlamentar dos Assuntos Económicos e Monetários nestes últimos dois anos, falámos da questão do aumento dos preços da habitação. Continuo a olhar esta questão com preocupação. Por conseguinte, o relatório convida o BCE a acompanhar atentamente esta evolução que é susceptível de ter repercussões na economia real. O relatório convida também o BCE a apresentar os avanços possíveis, acompanhados das respectivas vantagens, tais como a inclusão do imobiliário no índice harmonizado de preços no consumidor ou a concepção de um tipo específico de indicador, ou a sugerir medidas específicas, que deverão ser adoptadas a nível nacional em virtude da heterogeneidade dos mercados nacionais.
Refiro mais tarde a fórmula Fed (Reserva Federal norte-americana). Talvez seja tempo de desenvolver uma fórmula BCE para ajudar a prever o possível efeito dos aumentos das taxas de juro no preço do imobiliário habitacional. O meu relatório também levanta a questão do crédito de alto risco e sugere que a UE retire as devidas lições das potenciais dificuldades para a economia dos EUA que este tipo de crédito representa.
Gostaria de abordar, por uns momentos, uma questão que diz especialmente respeito à Irlanda mas que terá, possivelmente, interesse para os membros da zona euro. No ano transacto, as agências imobiliárias Hook e McDonald previram um aumento dos preços da habitação na ordem dos 9%, a Sherry Fitzgerald na ordem dos 8% e 10% e as Friends First e IIB na ordem dos 7%, enquanto os Allied Irish Banks previram um aumento situado entre os 3% e os 6%. O último índice de preços para o imobiliário habitacional do Banco irlandês Permament TSB elaborado em conjunto com o ESRI (Instituto de Investigação Ecomómica e Social da Irlanda) mostra de facto que o preço do imobiliário habitacional desceu 2,1% entre Janeiro e Maio de 2007 e que se espera nova descida na Irlanda. Prevê-se que o crédito de alto risco – que é um crédito a pessoas com menos recursos, aquelas que auferem de um rendimento irregular ou com um historial polémico no pagamento do crédito – cresça para 4 mil milhões de euros na Irlanda este ano. Se a média do empréstimo se situa entre os 200 000 euros e 400 000 euros, devo dizer que só na Irlanda existem entre 10 000 a 20 000 desses empréstimos. As instituições de crédito mutuantes de alto risco são relativamente novas para o mercado irlandês e, na generalidade, cobram duas vezes mais a taxa de crédito hipotecário praticada para "compensar" – como eles dizem – as instituições pelo risco maior que correm. Houve um caso em que uma instituição de crédito hipotecário que opera na Irlanda desde 2005, já readquiriu 30 casas.
Surgem também sinais de preocupação no Reino Unido relativamente ao crédito de alto risco. É sabido, há já algum tempo, que existe uma fórmula Fed nos Estados Unidos. A fórmula Fed concebida pela Reserva Federal dos EUA, de acordo com um dos seus ex-economistas, mostra que é típico, sempre que os preços das casas vão sofrendo aumentos durante anos à conta de taxas de juro baixas, quando as taxas de juro aumentam, os preços começam a baixar abruptamente 18 meses a 2 anos depois. Creio que o BCE deveria tomar como exemplo esta fórmula e desenvolver uma fórmula BCE porque, neste momento, deixamos as previsões nas mãos das pessoas com interesses no sector, e estas são as pessoas – as instituições financeiras e outros – que mais têm a ganhar.
O relatório insta a Comissão a avaliar a qualidade da supervisão nos centros
de
. Reitera as observações feitas no passado sobre o controlo democrático e a necessidade de publicar actas sucintas das reuniões do Conselho de Governadores do BCE. Chama a atenção para o facto de os descobertos bancários serem bastante variáveis na zona euro, desde menos de 7% até 13,5% ou mais, e recomenda que o BCE aprofunde o estudo das causas deste fenómeno.
Termina, afirmando que no final de 2006, estavam em circulação 11,3 mil milhões de notas com um valor de 628,2 mil milhões de euros, mas que isso diz respeito ao aumento do número de notas 50 euros, 100 euros e 500 euros. Só as notas de 500 euros aumentaram 13,2%. O meu relatório, com o apoio da Comissão dos Assuntos Económicos e Monetários, coloca a possibilidade de actividades criminosas na utilização de valores faciais tão altos, pelo que considera que a situação carece de uma análise mais profunda pelo BCE. Espero que o Senhor Presidente Trichet esteja em posição de responder a este relatório e, em especial – não hoje, mas talvez num período a acertar – de considerar a minha sugestão sobre uma fórmula BCE que equivalha à formula Fed, de modo a que possa haver uma avaliação rigorosa e verdadeira das possíveis repercussões do aumento das taxas de juro nos preços do imobiliário habitacional nos Estados-Membros da zona euro."@pt17
"Mr President, I am happy for this report to be debated jointly with the report on the eurozone. I would add that the report I am presenting was adopted unanimously by the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs.
Starting with the economic situation, in 2006 the economic recovery in the eurozone became a self-sustaining process with domestic demand acting as the main driver. Two million jobs were created in 2006 and unemployment fell from 8.4% to 7.6%. In the context of this recovery, I would like to stress the main points of the report. Against the background of the recent recovery, any further raising of interest rates should be undertaken with caution in order not to endanger economic growth. It is crucial that wages increase in line with productivity in order to preserve competitiveness in Member States and to allow for job creation in a non-inflationary environment. Fiscal consolidation is key and all the more necessary in good times in order to achieve long-term growth.
The report observes that small economies have performed better than large economies since the creation of the eurozone in terms of growth, with notably Ireland, Finland, Greece, Luxembourg and Spain achieving a higher average growth rate than the eurozone average and we say that lessons might be drawn from such developments. The report expresses concern about the ongoing appreciation of the euro against most major European currencies. Article 111 of the Treaty assigns responsibility for exchange rate policy to the Council but without specifying how this responsibility should be exercised.
The report calls on the Eurogroup, the Council and the ECB to exercise their respective powers and responsibilities in full coordination. The report also calls on the ECB to monitor closely developments in the use of the euro as a reserve currency for central banks and, in the context of its annual report on the international role of the euro, to quantify and analyse the effects of this, particularly as regards exchange rates. Mr Trichet will be aware that every time he has appeared at Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee during the last two years I have raised with him the issue of house prices. This remains a concern of mine. Therefore, the report calls for the ECB to monitor closely these developments, which have the potential to have consequences for the real economy. The report contains a request that the ECB present ways forward with their respective advantages, such as including real estate in the harmonised index of consumer prices or devising a specific type of indicator or suggesting specific measures to be taken at national level due to heterogeneities among the national markets.
I refer later on to the Fed formula. Perhaps it is time to develop an ECB formula to help forecast the likely effect of interest rate increases on house prices. My report also raises the issue of sub-prime lending and suggests that lessons can be learned in the EU from the potential difficulties for the US economy of sub-prime lending.
I would like to take a moment to address an issue of particular concern to Ireland but which has potential interest for other eurozone members. Last year in Ireland house prices were forecast to increase by 9% by estate agents Hook and McDonald, by between 8% and 10% by Sherry Fitzgerald and by 7% by Friends First and IIB, while Allied Irish Banks forecast an increase of between 3% and 6%. The recent Irish Permanent tsb/ESRI index shows in fact that house prices fell by 2.1% between January and May 2007 and a further decline in Ireland is expected. Sub-prime lending – that is lending to poorer people, those with an irregular income stream or difficult history of meeting loans – is projected to grow to EUR 4 billion in Ireland this year. If the average loan was between EUR 200 000 and EUR 400 000, then between 10 000 and 20 000 such loans exist in Ireland alone. Sub-prime lenders are relatively new to the Irish market and generally charge about twice the going mortgage rate to ‘compensate’ – as they put it – lenders for higher risk. In one case a mortgage company operating in Ireland since 2005 has already repossessed 30 homes.
There are also signs of concern in Britain about sub-prime lending. It has been known for some time that there is a Fed formula in the United States. The Fed formula devised by the US Federal Reserve, according to one of its former economists, shows that typically, when house prices have been driven up for several years by low interest rates, when interest rates increase, prices begin to decline roughly 18 months to 2 years later. I believe that the ECB should follow this formula and develop an ECB formula because, at present, we are leaving it to people who are involved in the industry to make the forecasts, and they are the people – the financial institutions and others – who have most to gain.
The report urges the Commission to assess the quality of supervision and offshore location of hedge funds. It reiterates points made in the past about democratic scrutiny and the need to publish summary minutes. It draws attention to the fact that overdraft rates in the euro area vary from 7% to 13.5% and asks that the ECB evaluate this.
It ends by saying that the number of banknotes in circulation stood at 11.3 billion with a value of EUR 628.2 billion last year, but that it is concerned about the growth in the number of 50 euro, 100 euro and 500 euro banknotes. 500 euro banknotes alone have increased by 13.2%. My report, with the support of the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee, raises the possibility of criminal activities in the use of these large banknotes and says that it requires further examination by the ECB. I hope Mr Trichet will be in a position to respond to this report and, in particular – not today, but perhaps over a certain period – to consider my suggestion about an ECB formula to equate with the Fed formula so that there can be a true and accurate measure of the likely knock-on effect of interest rate increases on house prices in the Member States of the eurozone."@ro18
"Mr President, I am happy for this report to be debated jointly with the report on the eurozone. I would add that the report I am presenting was adopted unanimously by the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs.
Starting with the economic situation, in 2006 the economic recovery in the eurozone became a self-sustaining process with domestic demand acting as the main driver. Two million jobs were created in 2006 and unemployment fell from 8.4% to 7.6%. In the context of this recovery, I would like to stress the main points of the report. Against the background of the recent recovery, any further raising of interest rates should be undertaken with caution in order not to endanger economic growth. It is crucial that wages increase in line with productivity in order to preserve competitiveness in Member States and to allow for job creation in a non-inflationary environment. Fiscal consolidation is key and all the more necessary in good times in order to achieve long-term growth.
The report observes that small economies have performed better than large economies since the creation of the eurozone in terms of growth, with notably Ireland, Finland, Greece, Luxembourg and Spain achieving a higher average growth rate than the eurozone average and we say that lessons might be drawn from such developments. The report expresses concern about the ongoing appreciation of the euro against most major European currencies. Article 111 of the Treaty assigns responsibility for exchange rate policy to the Council but without specifying how this responsibility should be exercised.
The report calls on the Eurogroup, the Council and the ECB to exercise their respective powers and responsibilities in full coordination. The report also calls on the ECB to monitor closely developments in the use of the euro as a reserve currency for central banks and, in the context of its annual report on the international role of the euro, to quantify and analyse the effects of this, particularly as regards exchange rates. Mr Trichet will be aware that every time he has appeared at Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee during the last two years I have raised with him the issue of house prices. This remains a concern of mine. Therefore, the report calls for the ECB to monitor closely these developments, which have the potential to have consequences for the real economy. The report contains a request that the ECB present ways forward with their respective advantages, such as including real estate in the harmonised index of consumer prices or devising a specific type of indicator or suggesting specific measures to be taken at national level due to heterogeneities among the national markets.
I refer later on to the Fed formula. Perhaps it is time to develop an ECB formula to help forecast the likely effect of interest rate increases on house prices. My report also raises the issue of sub-prime lending and suggests that lessons can be learned in the EU from the potential difficulties for the US economy of sub-prime lending.
I would like to take a moment to address an issue of particular concern to Ireland but which has potential interest for other eurozone members. Last year in Ireland house prices were forecast to increase by 9% by estate agents Hook and McDonald, by between 8% and 10% by Sherry Fitzgerald and by 7% by Friends First and IIB, while Allied Irish Banks forecast an increase of between 3% and 6%. The recent Irish Permanent tsb/ESRI index shows in fact that house prices fell by 2.1% between January and May 2007 and a further decline in Ireland is expected. Sub-prime lending – that is lending to poorer people, those with an irregular income stream or difficult history of meeting loans – is projected to grow to EUR 4 billion in Ireland this year. If the average loan was between EUR 200 000 and EUR 400 000, then between 10 000 and 20 000 such loans exist in Ireland alone. Sub-prime lenders are relatively new to the Irish market and generally charge about twice the going mortgage rate to ‘compensate’ – as they put it – lenders for higher risk. In one case a mortgage company operating in Ireland since 2005 has already repossessed 30 homes.
There are also signs of concern in Britain about sub-prime lending. It has been known for some time that there is a Fed formula in the United States. The Fed formula devised by the US Federal Reserve, according to one of its former economists, shows that typically, when house prices have been driven up for several years by low interest rates, when interest rates increase, prices begin to decline roughly 18 months to 2 years later. I believe that the ECB should follow this formula and develop an ECB formula because, at present, we are leaving it to people who are involved in the industry to make the forecasts, and they are the people – the financial institutions and others – who have most to gain.
The report urges the Commission to assess the quality of supervision and offshore location of hedge funds. It reiterates points made in the past about democratic scrutiny and the need to publish summary minutes. It draws attention to the fact that overdraft rates in the euro area vary from 7% to 13.5% and asks that the ECB evaluate this.
It ends by saying that the number of banknotes in circulation stood at 11.3 billion with a value of EUR 628.2 billion last year, but that it is concerned about the growth in the number of 50 euro, 100 euro and 500 euro banknotes. 500 euro banknotes alone have increased by 13.2%. My report, with the support of the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee, raises the possibility of criminal activities in the use of these large banknotes and says that it requires further examination by the ECB. I hope Mr Trichet will be in a position to respond to this report and, in particular – not today, but perhaps over a certain period – to consider my suggestion about an ECB formula to equate with the Fed formula so that there can be a true and accurate measure of the likely knock-on effect of interest rate increases on house prices in the Member States of the eurozone."@sk19
"Mr President, I am happy for this report to be debated jointly with the report on the eurozone. I would add that the report I am presenting was adopted unanimously by the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs.
Starting with the economic situation, in 2006 the economic recovery in the eurozone became a self-sustaining process with domestic demand acting as the main driver. Two million jobs were created in 2006 and unemployment fell from 8.4% to 7.6%. In the context of this recovery, I would like to stress the main points of the report. Against the background of the recent recovery, any further raising of interest rates should be undertaken with caution in order not to endanger economic growth. It is crucial that wages increase in line with productivity in order to preserve competitiveness in Member States and to allow for job creation in a non-inflationary environment. Fiscal consolidation is key and all the more necessary in good times in order to achieve long-term growth.
The report observes that small economies have performed better than large economies since the creation of the eurozone in terms of growth, with notably Ireland, Finland, Greece, Luxembourg and Spain achieving a higher average growth rate than the eurozone average and we say that lessons might be drawn from such developments. The report expresses concern about the ongoing appreciation of the euro against most major European currencies. Article 111 of the Treaty assigns responsibility for exchange rate policy to the Council but without specifying how this responsibility should be exercised.
The report calls on the Eurogroup, the Council and the ECB to exercise their respective powers and responsibilities in full coordination. The report also calls on the ECB to monitor closely developments in the use of the euro as a reserve currency for central banks and, in the context of its annual report on the international role of the euro, to quantify and analyse the effects of this, particularly as regards exchange rates. Mr Trichet will be aware that every time he has appeared at Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee during the last two years I have raised with him the issue of house prices. This remains a concern of mine. Therefore, the report calls for the ECB to monitor closely these developments, which have the potential to have consequences for the real economy. The report contains a request that the ECB present ways forward with their respective advantages, such as including real estate in the harmonised index of consumer prices or devising a specific type of indicator or suggesting specific measures to be taken at national level due to heterogeneities among the national markets.
I refer later on to the Fed formula. Perhaps it is time to develop an ECB formula to help forecast the likely effect of interest rate increases on house prices. My report also raises the issue of sub-prime lending and suggests that lessons can be learned in the EU from the potential difficulties for the US economy of sub-prime lending.
I would like to take a moment to address an issue of particular concern to Ireland but which has potential interest for other eurozone members. Last year in Ireland house prices were forecast to increase by 9% by estate agents Hook and McDonald, by between 8% and 10% by Sherry Fitzgerald and by 7% by Friends First and IIB, while Allied Irish Banks forecast an increase of between 3% and 6%. The recent Irish Permanent tsb/ESRI index shows in fact that house prices fell by 2.1% between January and May 2007 and a further decline in Ireland is expected. Sub-prime lending – that is lending to poorer people, those with an irregular income stream or difficult history of meeting loans – is projected to grow to EUR 4 billion in Ireland this year. If the average loan was between EUR 200 000 and EUR 400 000, then between 10 000 and 20 000 such loans exist in Ireland alone. Sub-prime lenders are relatively new to the Irish market and generally charge about twice the going mortgage rate to ‘compensate’ – as they put it – lenders for higher risk. In one case a mortgage company operating in Ireland since 2005 has already repossessed 30 homes.
There are also signs of concern in Britain about sub-prime lending. It has been known for some time that there is a Fed formula in the United States. The Fed formula devised by the US Federal Reserve, according to one of its former economists, shows that typically, when house prices have been driven up for several years by low interest rates, when interest rates increase, prices begin to decline roughly 18 months to 2 years later. I believe that the ECB should follow this formula and develop an ECB formula because, at present, we are leaving it to people who are involved in the industry to make the forecasts, and they are the people – the financial institutions and others – who have most to gain.
The report urges the Commission to assess the quality of supervision and offshore location of hedge funds. It reiterates points made in the past about democratic scrutiny and the need to publish summary minutes. It draws attention to the fact that overdraft rates in the euro area vary from 7% to 13.5% and asks that the ECB evaluate this.
It ends by saying that the number of banknotes in circulation stood at 11.3 billion with a value of EUR 628.2 billion last year, but that it is concerned about the growth in the number of 50 euro, 100 euro and 500 euro banknotes. 500 euro banknotes alone have increased by 13.2%. My report, with the support of the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee, raises the possibility of criminal activities in the use of these large banknotes and says that it requires further examination by the ECB. I hope Mr Trichet will be in a position to respond to this report and, in particular – not today, but perhaps over a certain period – to consider my suggestion about an ECB formula to equate with the Fed formula so that there can be a true and accurate measure of the likely knock-on effect of interest rate increases on house prices in the Member States of the eurozone."@sl20
"Herr talman! Det gläder mig att detta betänkande ska diskuteras tillsammans med betänkandet om euroområdet. Jag skulle vilja tillägga att det betänkande som jag lägger fram blev enhälligt antaget av utskottet för ekonomi och valutafrågor.
Om jag får börja med den ekonomiska situationen: under 2006 blev den ekonomiska återhämtningen i euroområdet en varaktig process där den främsta drivkraften var inhemsk efterfrågan. Det skapades två miljoner arbetstillfällen 2006, och arbetslösheten sjönk från 8,4 procent till 7,6 procent. Mot bakgrund av denna återhämtning skulle jag vilja betona huvudpunkterna i betänkandet. Mot bakgrund av den senaste återhämtningen bör alla ytterligare höjningar av räntenivåer genomföras med försiktighet för att inte äventyra den ekonomiska tillväxten. Det är avgörande att löner höjs i takt med produktiviteten för att bevara konkurrenskraften i medlemsstaterna och för att göra det möjligt att skapa arbetstillfällen under icke-inflatoriska förhållanden. Lösningen är en finanspolitisk konsolidering, och alltmer nödvändig i goda tider för att uppnå långsiktig tillväxt.
I betänkandet noteras att de mindre ekonomierna haft bättre tillväxt än de större ekonomierna sedan euroområdet inrättades, och framför allt Irland, Finland, Grekland, Luxemburg och Spanien har haft en högre genomsnittlig tillväxttakt i euroområdet. Man kan dra nyttiga lärdomar av denna utveckling. I betänkandet uttrycks oro över den pågående apprecieringen av euron gentemot de flesta stora europeiska valutor. I fördraget i artikel 111 tilldelas rådet ansvaret för växelkurspolitiken utan att det för den skull specificeras hur detta ansvar ska utövas.
Eurogruppen, rådet och Europeiska centralbanken (ECB) uppmanas i betänkandet att fullt ut utöva sina respektive behörigheter fullständigt samordnade. I betänkandet uppmanas även ECB att noggrant övervaka utvecklingen av användningen av euron som reservvaluta av centralbankerna och, i sin årsrapport om eurons internationella roll, presentera en kvantifiering och analysera dess konsekvenser, bland annat för växelkursen. Jean-Claude Trichet är medveten om att varje gång som han har framträtt inför parlamentets utskott för ekonomi och valutafrågor under de senaste två åren har jag tagit upp frågan om fastighetspriser med honom. Detta fortsätter att oroa mig. Därför uppmanas ECB i betänkandet att noga övervaka denna utveckling som kan få konsekvenser för den reala ekonomin. Detta betänkande innehåller en begäran att ECB lägger fram alternativ med olika fördelar, som exempelvis att ta med fastigheter i det harmoniserade konsumentprisindexet eller att utarbeta en särskild indikator eller föreslå särskilda åtgärder på nationell nivå, som är anpassade till skillnaderna mellan de nationella marknaderna.
Jag kommer senare att hänvisa till ”Fed-formeln”. Det är kanske dags att utveckla en ECB-formel som kan bidra till att förutse de troliga effekterna av räntehöjningar på fastighetspriserna. I mitt betänkande tas även frågan om
[bolån till personer som inte godkänns som låntagare av traditionella långivare] upp, och det föreslås att lärdomar kan dras inom EU av de potentiella svårigheterna för den amerikanska ekonomin som denna utlåning vid sidan av bankerna skapar.
Jag skulle vilja ta en liten stund i anspråk för att ta upp en fråga av särskilt intresse för Irland, men som har potentiellt intresse för andra medlemsstater i euroområdet. Förra året beräknade fastighetsmäklarna
att fastighetspriserna skulle stiga med 9 procent på Irland
räknade med en ökning på mellan 8 och 10 procent och
och
med 7 procent, medan
förutspådde en ökning på mellan 3 och 6 procent. Det senaste irländska tsb/ESRI-indexet visar i själva verket att fastighetspriserna sjönk med 2,1 procent mellan januari och maj 2007, och en fortsatt nedgång är att vänta på Irland.
det vill säga utlåning till fattigare människor, de med en oregelbunden inkomst eller en svår kredithistorik – beräknas öka till 4 miljard euro på Irland i år. Om det genomsnittliga lånet ligger på mellan 200 000 och 400 000 euro, så skulle mellan 10 000 och 20 000 sådana lån existera enbart på Irland. Bolånegivare av detta slag är relativt nya på den irländska marknaden och debiterar i allmänhet ungefär den dubbla aktuella hypoteksräntan för att ”kompensera” – som de säger – långivare för högre risker. I ett fall hade ett hypoteksföretag som verkade på Irland redan återtagit 30 hus sedan 2005.
Det finns också oroväckande tecken i Storbritannien när det gäller
. Det har varit känt sedan en tid tillbaka att det finns en ”Fed-formel” i Förenta staterna. ”Fed-formeln”, som uppfanns av Förenta staternas centralbank
enligt en av dess före detta ekonomer, visar att priserna vanligen börjar dala ungefär 18 månader till två år efter en räntehöjning, efter att fastighetspriserna har drivits upp under flera år av låga räntor. Jag anser att ECB borde följa denna formel och utveckla en ECB-formel, eftersom vi för närvarande låter personer som är engagerade i branschen utarbeta prognoserna, och det är dessa personer – finansinstitut och andra – som har mest att vinna.
I betänkandet uppmanas kommissionen att utvärdera kvaliteten på tillsynen och hedgefonders offshorestrukturer. Sådana punkter som tidigare framförts om demokratisk kontroll och behovet av att offentliggöra sammanfattande protokoll upprepas. Uppmärksamheten riktas på att räntor på checkräkningskrediter varierar från 7 till 13,5 procent, och ECB ombes undersöka orsakerna till detta.
I betänkandet framförs avslutningsvis att antalet sedlar i omlopp var 11,3 miljarder till ett värde på 628,2 miljarder euro förra året, men att tillväxten när det gäller antalet eurosedlar på 50, 100 och 500 euro är oroväckande. Enbart sedlarna på 500 euro har ökat med 13,2 procent. Med stöd av utskottet för ekonomi och valutafrågor väcks i mitt betänkande frågan om det pågår eventuell brottslig verksamhet i samband med användningen av dessa stora valörer, och det sägs att detta kräver mer noggrann granskning av ECB. Jag hoppas att Jean-Claude Trichet kommer vara i stånd att svara på detta betänkande och särskilt – inte i dag, men kanske under en viss period – överväga mitt förslag om en ECB-formel som står i exakt proportion till ”Fed-formeln”, så att det kan vidtas en verklig och korrekt åtgärd när det gäller den troliga kedjereaktionen av räntehöjningar på fastighetspriser i medlemsstater i euroområdet."@sv22
|
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"Fed"12
"Federal Reserve"22,12
"Federal Riserve"12
"Friends First"22
"Friends First and IIB"12
"Gay Mitchell (PPE-DE ),"18,5,20,15,1,19,14,16,11,13,4
"Hook and McDonald"22,12
"IIB räknade"22
"Irish Permanent tsb/ESRI"12
"Sherry Fitzgerald"22,12
"Sub-prime lending"22
"hedge funds"2,17
"offshore"17,12
"rapporteur"18,5,20,15,1,19,14,11,16,13,4
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Named graphs describing this resource:
The resource appears as object in 2 triples